The third-quarter performance of Singapore’s economy exceeded expectations, registering a robust 1.1 percent expansion. This growth was propelled by the construction industry and the services sector, particularly tourism. The data from the trade ministry surpassed the anticipated 0.8 percent and marked a significant improvement from the preceding three months.
In response to the positive momentum, officials have revised the full-year forecast for 2023. They now anticipate the economy to grow by 1.0 percent, adjusting from the earlier estimated range of 0.5-1.5 percent. The decision is influenced by improved performance in the US economy since the previous forecast in August. However, officials cautioned that inflation-fighting interest rate hikes may pose challenges in the coming months.
The ministry projected that growth in the US and eurozone would moderate due to the cumulative effects of monetary policy tightening. Similarly, China’s growth is expected to decelerate further due to ongoing weaknesses in its property sector, domestic consumption, and subdued external demand. Despite sluggish global demand for electronics, one of Singapore’s major exports, there are indications that the downturn may be stabilizing.
Continued growth in tourism arrivals is anticipated to support aviation and tourism-related businesses. Taking into account the overall performance of Singapore’s economy in the first three quarters of the year, along with the latest external and domestic developments, the GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been narrowed to around 1.0 percent.
Looking ahead to 2024, the ministry foresees a growth range of 1.0-3.0 percent. However, potential downside risks include high inflation and an escalation of conflicts, such as those between Israel and Hamas or the war in Ukraine. The confluence of these factors could impact business and consumer sentiments, leading to a potential slowdown in global growth and trade.
