Asian stocks edged lower on Tuesday as concerns over the situation in the Middle East overshadowed expectations for an early Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The absence of trading catalysts due to a holiday in Wall Street limited buying activity, and analysts cautioned that optimism about substantial monetary policy loosening by the US central bank might be excessive. Equities had surged at the end of 2023 amid signs of decreasing inflation and a softening job market, fueling speculation of a Fed rate cut. However, recent developments, including strong employment data and higher-than-expected consumer prices, have tempered those expectations.
Market pricing indicates anticipation of nearly seven rate cuts in 2024, reflecting the belief that disinflation is firmly entrenched. Analysts, such as Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management, questioned whether the market is now overestimating the Fed’s readiness to implement rate cuts over the next 12 months. While inflation is generally trending downward, concerns persist that it could resurface, especially amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
Recent US and UK strikes against Yemen’s Huthis, in response to attacks on Red Sea shipping, have heightened geopolitical tensions, with fears of potential retaliation. Despite initial upward movement, oil prices remain subdued due to global economic struggles, particularly in China. Investors are now awaiting key US data releases on retail sales, industrial production, and jobs later in the week.
Most Asian markets experienced declines, with Tokyo seeing a small drop after six consecutive gains that lifted the Nikkei to a 34-year high. Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, and Manila also reported losses. The weak performance follows European losses tied to Germany’s slight economic contraction in 2023, attributed to factors such as costly energy, high-interest rates, and weakening foreign demand.
