The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its first assessment of oil demand for 2025, forecasting robust global growth of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd). This optimistic outlook is driven by a strong global economic recovery, particularly in China, and sustained economic activity.
According to OPEC’s report, the expected oil demand growth in 2025 will be primarily fueled by a nearly 1.7-million-bpd increase in non-OECD countries, with a focus on China, the Middle East, India, and other Asian nations.
Looking at 2024, OPEC anticipates a global oil demand increase of 2.2 million bpd compared to 2023, maintaining the same prediction as in the previous month’s report.
In terms of economic growth, OPEC foresees a global economic growth rate of 2.8 percent in 2025, up from the 2.6 percent forecasted for the current year. The organization attributes this positive trajectory to the expectation of diminishing general inflation in major economies, coupled with a shift towards more accommodative monetary policies in the latter half of 2024 and throughout 2025.
Regarding oil supply, OPEC expects non-OPEC production to rise by 1.3 million bpd in both 2024 and 2025.
On the same day as the report’s release, OPEC’s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais refuted predictions of peak oil demand, stating that reliable and robust short- and medium-term forecasts do not support the notion of approaching peak oil demand. This counters forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which suggested a peak in global oil demand before the end of the decade. The IEA has been more cautious in its outlook, citing slow economic growth, efficiency improvements, and the increased adoption of electric vehicles. In December, the IEA projected global oil demand growth of 1.1 million bpd in 2024, significantly lower than OPEC’s forecast.
