Bangladesh’s economy grew by 6.12% in the third quarter (January-March) of the recently concluded fiscal year, showing a significant recovery from the second quarter’s 3.78% growth. This recovery was driven by substantial growth across key sectors – agriculture, industry, and services, according to the latest data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
Despite the robust third-quarter performance, the economy needs to grow by over 7% in the final quarter to meet the revised annual growth target of 5.8% for FY2023-24. This target comes after the GDP growth fell to 3.78% in the second quarter from 6.01% in the first quarter (July-October) of FY24. The third-quarter growth of 6.12% was a significant improvement compared to the 2.30% growth seen in the same period of the previous fiscal year.
Regarding the $10 billion overstatement in export figures and its impact on growth calculations, economist Prof Mustafizur Rahman told The Business Standard, “The size of GDP will change due to the discrepancy in export earnings, but it may not impact growth. This discrepancy pertains to the previous fiscal year, so a portion of exports will be excluded from fiscal 2022-23.”
Prof Rahman, a distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, noted that the average growth for the first three-quarters of FY24 stands at around 5.3%. To meet the government’s target of 5.82% for FY24, the fourth quarter will need a significant boost in growth.
BBS officials stated they have not received official information from any government agency regarding the export figure discrepancies. As a result, they are using the same data as before for GDP calculation. Currently, BBS is receiving different export figures on different days and plans to revise GDP figures once they receive official information from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).
Planning Minister Abdus Salam acknowledged the discrepancy in export data from the EPB on Tuesday (9 July), stating it would lead to a decrease in per capita income and GDP size.
The GDP amounted to Tk13.48 billion in Q3, up from Tk11.44 billion in the same quarter last year. The agriculture sector’s contribution to GDP saw a substantial increase from 1.88% in Q3 of FY23 to 5.46% in the last fiscal year. The industry’s contribution also rose by 2.05 percentage points to 7.03%, while the service sector’s contribution grew from 1.47% to 4.97%.
