Asian markets were mixed Monday as investors weigh the impact of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump with data suggesting it has boosted his chances of being re-elected president.
Eyes are also on a key meeting of China’s top leadership in Beijing, with hopes for measures to boost the world’s number two economy, which grew less than expected in the second quarter.
Investors struggled to extend the rally enjoyed on Wall Street, where all three main indexes ended on a positive note despite a forecast-topping read on US wholesale prices.
The figures were not enough to overshadow Thursday’s news that the consumer price index had slowed more than expected in June, which ramped up bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.
That came after central bank chief Jerome Powell told lawmakers that inflation did not need to come in at decision-makers’ two percent target for them to begin lowering borrowing costs.
However, investors are keeping a close eye on developments in the United States after Trump was hit with a bullet on Saturday at a rally ahead of the Republican convention this week.
While the odds of him beating President Joe Biden had been rising in recent weeks, they got an extra lift from the shooting.
Observers said a Trump victory could see lower corporate taxes — a boost for companies’ bottom lines — but also an increase in tensions with China with fresh tariffs possible.
Still, Katrina Ell at Moody’s Analytics said: “The assassination attempt might lead to a temporary boost in the polls for Trump, but a lot can change before November.
“Financial markets are expected to soon refocus on the Federal Reserve and the growing likelihood of a rate cut in September.”
The dollar rose Monday, having softened last week owing to the prospect of lower rates, while equity markets were mixed.
Hong Kong, Shanghai, Seoul, Taipei and Jakarta dropped, while Sydney, Singapore, Manila and Wellington rose.
Official data showed the Chinese economy expanded just 4.7 percent in the second quarter, well below the 5.1 percent forecast in a survey by Bloomberg.
Separate data showed retail sales slowed sharply in June as the country’s army of consumers remain cautious.
The readings highlight the tough work leaders face as they grapple with a real estate debt crisis, weakening consumption, an ageing population and trade tensions with Western rivals.
President Xi Jinping and other top leaders are gathered in Beijing to hammer out plans to kickstart growth, though analysts warned there was unlikely to be any major announcement for the short-term.
“A Trump victory would be damaging for China’s economy given manufacturing and exports are powering the recovery,” Moody’s Ell added.
“Trump has indicated a number of significant trade barriers would be imposed on China under his leadership.”
– Key figures around 0230 GMT –
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.9 percent at 18,123.67
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.2 percent at 2,965.55
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday
Dollar/yen: UP at 158.04 yen from 157.88 yen on Friday
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0889 from $1.0906
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2966 from $1.2989
Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.95 pence from 83.97 pence
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.5 percent at $81.80 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.5 percent at $84.64 per barrel
New York – Dow: UP 0.6 percent at 40,000.90 (close)
London – FTSE 100: UP 0.4 percent at 8,252.91 (close)
