Economy
How Iran-Israel war may cost Bangladesh economy
In recent months, Bangladesh’s economy has shown signs of recovery, particularly in export earnings and inward remittances. The volatility in the foreign exchange market has also begun to ease after over a year and a half. However, the Iran-Israel conflict has emerged as a fresh concern, posing a potential threat to the nation’s ongoing recovery efforts.
Businesses and economists have expressed concerns that if the conflict escalates and prolongs, it could have various repercussions on Bangladesh’s economy.
One such impact could be the destabilisation of the energy market and subsequent price fluctuations, akin to what occurred following the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. This could lead to increased burdens on Bangladesh’s oil and LNG import bills due to inevitable price hikes.
They caution that the Red Sea shipping route, already affected by Yemen’s Houthi attacks, could face additional disruptions. This situation could potentially have significant impacts on global supply chains, especially if there are further complications at the Strait of Hormuz which sees one-fifth of global oil production flow through it daily. This could result in increased freight costs and shipping times.
“Further escalation means everything will be difficult for us and many others,” said Azam J Chowdhury, chairman of East Coast Group, a conglomerate engaged in diverse sectors ranging from oil and gas to ocean-going ships, as well as banking and finance, among others.
Azam said the price of oil has already risen by $1 per barrel, and it is likely to further increase if the conflict between Iran and Israel persists. The state-owned Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has generated approximately Tk4,000 crore in profits since implementing the automated monthly pricing formula. However, these profits might not be sustained if prices further increase. Therefore, the pressure on the balance of payments (BOP) will further intensify.
Dr Masrur Reaz, CEO of the private think-tank Policy Exchange of Bangladesh, said an unstable energy market could lead to price escalations and increase import bills. If the government fails to import energy at higher prices, there may be an increase in load shedding and economic losses.
He said the Red Sea route, already experiencing disruptions with ships rerouting via Africa, would further increase shipping time and costs if trade through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. This situation could potentially create a crisis for ships due to the additional time required to navigate through the African region.
While neither Iran nor Israel directly hosts Bangladesh’s migrant workers, the repercussions of the conflict will be felt in other Middle Eastern countries, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshis are employed, Masrur said, noting that the war’s impact on tourism and other service sectors in these countries will inevitably affect the livelihoods of Bangladeshi workers residing there.
“In the short term, expatriate Bangladeshis may not lose their current jobs, but new recruitment will likely be halted. As a result, the inflow of remittances will decrease, putting pressure on the balance of payments,” he said.
Masrur added that if the conflict persists for a year or more, Bangladeshis may indeed begin to lose their jobs.
Professor Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), reiterated concerns about the rise in energy prices and maritime trade costs.
He said if the conflict escalates, the global economy would suffer negative consequences. Consequently, demand in the USA and EU markets could decrease, with the obvious impact to be felt on Bangladesh’s garment exports.
However, Md Sazzadul Hassan, chairman and managing director of BASF Bangladesh Limited, cautioned against premature conclusions, stating that the outcome depends on how the tension unfolds.
“In general, the ongoing shipping challenges are likely to worsen, and fuel costs may skyrocket,” he said.
Nonetheless, he said, since a large number of Bangladeshis work in the Middle East, any further escalation could potentially impact these workers.
Oil price after Iran’s missile attack on Israel
Iran possesses extensive oil reserves and ranks as the third-largest producer within the oil cartel OPEC. According to CNBC, an American business news channel, any disruption to its ability to supply global markets could result in elevated oil prices. The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could further exacerbate this situation.
CNBC reported on Monday that oil prices could surge to $100 per barrel and beyond if renewed fears of a regional war emerge.
“Any attack on oil production or export facilities in Iran would drive the price of Brent crude oil to $100, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to prices in the $120 to $130 range,” reports CNBC quoting Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
Meanwhile, Reuters reports a 1% decrease in oil prices on Monday, indicating the market’s downplaying of the risk of a broader regional conflict following Iran’s weekend attack on Israel.
Brent futures for June delivery dropped by 99 cents, approximately 1%, reaching $89.46 a barrel by 0933 GMT on Monday. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate futures for May delivery experienced a decline of $1.05, around 1.2%, standing at $84.61.
Earlier on 12 April, oil benchmarks had risen in anticipation of Iran’s retaliatory attack, with prices touching their highest since October.
The report indicates that the price of each barrel of Iran’s heavy crude oil in March 2024 reached $83.48, marking a $3.14 increase compared to the previous month.
Furthermore, the average oil price of OPEC in March 2024 reached $84.22, reflecting a $2.99 growth compared to the preceding month, as stated in the report.
The Kazipara and Mirpur-10 metro stations, which have been closed, are expected to reopen by the end of September, though the exact date has not yet been confirmed. Mohammad Abdur Rauf, Managing Director of Dhaka Mass Transit Company Limited (DMTCL), told TBS that a technical team has been tasked with resolving the issues at the stations.
“We are working to reopen the two stations within this month, but I cannot give a specific launch date yet. We will hold a meeting with the technical team and other stakeholders soon to review the progress. A decision is likely on 18 September,” Rauf said.
He noted that Kazipara station is likely to open earlier due to less severe damage, while Mirpur-10 may face delays as it requires machinery that needs to be imported.
Additionally, Rauf mentioned plans to begin metro rail operations on Fridays starting from 20 September, with efforts being made to meet this timeline.
Dr. Muhammad Yunus, the Chief Adviser of the interim government, has announced the formation of six commissions as an initial step toward reforms, including constitutional amendments. These commissions are expected to begin operations on 1 October and complete their work within three months.
In an address to the nation on Wednesday evening (11 September) from the Chief Adviser’s Office, Yunus outlined the government’s reform agenda. This is his second national address since taking office on 8 August.
Yunus explained that the formation of the six commissions is the first step in a broader plan for constitutional reform. He stated that the commissions would be led by six distinguished citizens, selected based on their expertise. These commissions will tackle various reform areas, and more will be established in the future.
Emphasizing the importance of constitutional reforms for free and fair elections, Yunus stated, “We believe that imposing majority rule through elections, resulting in misgovernance or consolidating all power into the hands of one person, family, or group, is unacceptable. To prevent this, we are considering reforms to institutions like the Election Commission and others involved in the election process. Reforming the police administration, civil service, judiciary, and Anti-Corruption Commission is essential for ensuring fair and transparent elections. These reforms will also contribute to establishing a state system based on public ownership, accountability, and welfare.”
Yunus announced the names of the six commission heads:
- Dr. Badiul Alam Majumdar will lead the Election System Reform Commission.
- Sarfaraz Chowdhury will head the Police Administration Reform Commission.
- Justice Shah Abu Naeem Mominur Rahman will lead the Judiciary Reform Commission.
- Dr. Iftekharuzzaman will lead the Anti-Corruption Reform Commission.
- Abdul Muid Chowdhury will head the Public Administration Reform Commission.
- Dr. Shahdeen Malik will lead the Constitutional Reform Commission.
The Chief Adviser mentioned that the other members of these commissions would be determined in consultation with the heads. Additionally, representatives from the advisory council, students, workers, social movements, civil society, and political parties will participate in the commissions’ discussions.
Yunus expressed hope that the commissions would be fully operational by 1 October and complete their work within three months. Based on the commissions’ reports, the government plans to organize consultations with major political parties. A broad consultation, lasting three to seven days, involving students, civil society, political party representatives, and the government will follow. This consultation will finalize the reform framework and outline its implementation strategy.
Yunus concluded by stating that this initiative will unify the nation, fulfilling the demands of the July uprising and strengthening the country with renewed hope and optimism.
The Foreign Investors’ Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) has urged the Bangladesh government to implement a more investment-friendly tax structure to enhance foreign investor confidence.
During a meeting on Wednesday (11 September) with the newly appointed chairman of the National Board of Revenue (NBR), Abdur Rahman Khan, FICCI leaders highlighted the need for comprehensive tax reforms that would position Bangladesh as a more attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) and strengthen the national economy.
Zaved Akhtar, President of FICCI, stressed the significance of fully digitising NBR operations, particularly by advancing automation systems to maximise revenue collection, as outlined in the chamber’s press release.
The delegation also recommended the establishment of a dedicated research unit within the NBR to broaden the tax base and increase revenue through in-depth market analysis, identifying gaps between market share and revenue generation.
NBR Chairman Abdur Rahman Khan acknowledged the importance of automation in stimulating economic progress and welcomed FICCI’s research findings on the taxation landscape.
FICCI’s delegation included Senior Vice President Eric M. Walker, other board members, and senior officials from member companies, alongside key officials from the NBR.
