Economy
Why $12.2b export proceeds pending abroad in 9 months of FY24?
When the country is in dire need of dollars amid a fast erosion of its foreign exchange reserves, $12.2 billion of its total export proceeds remained pending abroad in the first nine months of the fiscal 2023-24 – taking the gap between export receipts and shipment value to a historic high.
Bangladesh Bank data shows that export shipment value, as reported by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), was $40.8 billion in July-March of FY24. However, export receipts through the banking channel were $28.6 billion. The gap of $12.2 billion was reflected in trade credit, a component of the financial account of the country’s balance of payment statement.
The widening gap between export realisations and shipment value has put pressure on the country’s financial account, as it is reflected in trade credit. The deficit in the financial account reached a record high of $9.2 billion in July-March, compared to $2.9 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year, according to central bank data.
Earlier in the FY23, export receipts fell short of the value of shipments by $12 billion, a historic high, raising concerns among the Bangladesh Bank. However, this figure may be even higher by the end of FY24 if the current trend continues.
When contacted, a senior executive of the Bangladesh Bank, involved in preparing the balance of payment statement, explained the rising trade gap, saying that they found a significant mismatch between the EPB-reported export data and the realisation of export proceeds.
The central bank is now working to find out whether export proceeds are not coming home or if there is a problem with the shipment value reported by the EPB, he said.
He added that if any mismatch is identified in accounting between the shipment and realisation values of exports, it will ease the pressure on the financial account.
When asked for an official comment on this matter, Bangladesh Bank Spokesperson Md Mezbaul Haque did not respond.
At present, trade credit reflects the highest negative value among all components of the financial account statement. Trade credit became negative $12.24 billion from July-March of FY24, compared to only $3.96 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Central bank data shows that trade credit has turned significantly negative from positive since last fiscal year, with a widening gap between export shipment and realised value.
In the FY22, trade credit was a positive $311 million, and the financial account had a surplus of $16.6 billion.
Though the unrealised export value is rising, bankers have been experiencing a general trend in export repatriation.
When speaking to the news reporter, a senior executive of a private commercial bank said that the export repatriation trend is normal in his bank. He emphasised, “If exporters do not repatriate their proceeds, how will they run their factories?”
While common factors such as time lag and export bill discounts can account for mismatches between shipment and realised values, a senior executive at the Bangladesh Bank noted that the recent trend of unrealised export proceeds is unusually high.
The mismatch between export shipment and realised value has been notably pronounced over the last two years since FY22, following Bangladesh Bank’s decision to devalue the taka amidst a rising dollar crisis.
In the FY22, unrealised export proceeds reached $8.4 billion, with export receipts lagging 16% behind the shipment value of $52 billion, as disclosed by Bangladesh Bank data in the publication titled “Export Receipts of Goods and Services.”
Central bank data demonstrated that unrealised export proceeds ranged from 10% to 12% of the export shipment value between FY07 and FY21, with figures varying from $1 billion to $5 billion.
Responding to queries regarding the escalating value of unrealised exports during a monetary policy announcement event in June last year, Bangladesh Bank Governor Abdur Rouf Talukder explained that some exporters were deliberately delaying the repatriation of export proceeds to capitalise on currency devaluation.
He mentioned that exporters were permitted to retain export proceeds in their Export Retention Quota (ERQ) account, with a six-month time lag existing between shipment and receipt.
However, he expressed optimism that the Bangladesh Bank’s issuance of a circular to deter gains from devaluation would contribute to reducing the unrealised export value.
Earlier in March last year, the central bank issued a circular stating that exporters would be paid based on the dollar rate on the 120th day of export shipment, even if the proceeds came later. However, this circular seems to have had no impact on export repatriation.
Later, in another circular issued on 20 May, the Bangladesh Bank revised that policy, allowing exporters to receive the dollar rate on the day of encashing export proceeds. As a result, exporters will have an opportunity to receive the current dollar rate even if they encash the export proceeds after the 120th day.
Bangladesh has sought financial assistance from the World Bank to help meet rising energy costs amid global economic uncertainty, Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said on Monday.
Speaking to reporters in Bangkok on the sidelines of the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group, the minister said discussions with the World Bank were underway on possible financial support. Work was also progressing on a proposed framework agreement between the two sides, he added.
The minister expressed hope that the World Bank would continue to support Bangladesh as the country navigates mounting economic challenges.
He said global instability had increased the financial burden on Bangladesh’s energy sector, making additional support important to help manage the rising costs. According to the minister, the World Bank had responded positively to discussions on possible assistance.
Bangladesh’s engagement with the lender should go beyond existing funding arrangements and ongoing development projects, he said, stressing the need for broader cooperation to address the economic pressures arising from global uncertainty and higher energy expenditure.
Framework Agreement Under Discussion
Bangladesh and the World Bank are also working towards a framework agreement to strengthen their partnership, the minister said.
Discussions and related procedural work are continuing, with further steps dependent on progress in negotiations and agreement between the two sides.
The minister also emphasised the need to align development initiatives supported by international partners with the government’s election manifesto and national development priorities.
He said coordination between government policies and external assistance would be important in advancing Bangladesh’s economic objectives.
Bangladesh’s IMF Engagement Also in Focus
The possibility of a new lending programme with the IMF is another issue of interest for Bangladesh during the annual meetings, scheduled for October 12-18.
The meetings bring together finance ministers, central bank governors and senior officials from international financial institutions to discuss global economic developments, financing needs and development priorities.
For Bangladesh, a potential new IMF programme could provide additional external financing and support efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability. However, the size, terms and timeline of any new arrangement have not been formally confirmed.
Rising Global Costs Put Pressure on Bangladesh
Geopolitical tensions, volatile energy markets, inflation and higher borrowing costs continue to pose challenges for economies worldwide, particularly those heavily dependent on imports.
For Bangladesh, higher energy import bills can increase pressure on foreign exchange reserves and complicate government expenditure planning.
While financing from international development partners could help ease some of these pressures, sustained economic stability also depends on stronger revenue collection, improvements in the banking sector, more efficient public spending and a business environment conducive to investment.
Bangladesh’s participation in the annual meetings is therefore focused not only on securing financial assistance but also on strengthening development partnerships and exploring ways to address immediate economic pressures while pursuing longer-term development goals.
The outcome of the discussions with the World Bank, along with any progress towards a new IMF lending arrangement, will be important in determining the extent of additional external support available to Bangladesh.
Expatriate Bangladeshis sent approximately US$ 2.11 billion in remittances during the first 28 days of September in the fiscal year 2024-25, according to data released by Bangladesh Bank on 29 September.
Of this total, state-owned and specialised banks handled $679.10 million, while private banks received $1.43 billion in remittances.
Chief Adviser to Bangladesh’s interim government, Professor Muhammad Yunus, has vowed to expedite reforms and hold elections swiftly. Yunus, who recently assumed the role after the collapse of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year administration, expressed his commitment during an interview with Tokyo-based news outlet NHK WORLD in New York on Sunday. He was attending the United Nations General Assembly at the time.
Following mass student-led protests that ended Hasina’s long-standing rule in August, Yunus stepped in as the leader of the caretaker government. Known for founding Grameen Bank, an institution providing microloans to the underprivileged, Yunus, along with the bank, earned the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for his efforts in poverty alleviation.
During the interview, Yunus emphasized that the interim government’s primary mission is to implement reforms promptly and ensure elections are held as soon as the groundwork is complete. He underscored the importance of success, stating, “Failure is not something that we can accept.”
Addressing the pivotal role of students in the ousting of the Hasina administration, Yunus acknowledged the sacrifices made by young people, referring to their involvement as part of a “revolution.” He highlighted his intention to engage the younger generation in shaping policy.
Furthermore, Yunus called for continued support from Japan, Bangladesh’s largest donor, during this crucial transition period. He stressed that Japan’s assistance is vital to stabilizing Bangladesh’s economy and fostering a democratic foundation in the nation.
