Economy
Air pollution shortens life expectancy in Bangladesh by average 4.8 years: WHO
Bangladesh is the world’s most polluted country and particulate air pollution (PM2.5) shortens the average Bangladeshi resident’s life expectancy by 4.8 years, relative to what it would be if the World Health Organisation (WHO) guideline of 5 µg/m³ were met, says a new global report released today (28 August).
It said some areas of Bangladesh fare much worse than others, such as the Gazipur and Narsingdi districts, where air pollution is shortening lives by more than 6 years.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Bangladesh’s 166.4 million people live in areas where the annual average particulate pollution level exceeds the WHO guideline and 96.8 percent of the country’s population live in regions that don’t meet the country’s own national standard of 35 µg/m³.
Even in the least polluted district of Sylhet, particulate pollution is 6.7 times the WHO guideline.
While particulate pollution takes 4.8 years off the life of the average Bangladeshi, tobacco use takes off 2 years and child and maternal malnutrition takes off 1.4 years.
In 2022, particulate pollution was 22 percent lower relative to 2021—a contrast to the increasing trend between 2015-2021. If the reduction in 2022 is sustained, an average Bangladeshi resident would live 1 year longer compared to what they would if they were exposed to the average pollution levels over the last decade.
In some of the most polluted districts of the country spread across the states of Dhaka and Chattogram, 75.9 million residents or 45.6 percent of Bangladesh’s population are on track to lose 5.4 years of life expectancy on average relative to the WHO guideline.
If Bangladesh were to reduce particulate pollution to meet the WHO guideline, residents in Dhaka—the most populous district in Bangladesh—would gain 5.6 years of life expectancy. In Chattogram—the country’s second most populous district—residents would gain 5.2 years. Even if pollution levels in Dhaka and
Chattogram were to meet Bangladesh’s national standard, life expectancy in these districts would increase by 2.6 and 2.3 years, respectively.
Air Pollution Remains the Greatest External Risk to Human Health
While pollution slightly dipped due largely to a trend reversal in South Asia, more than three-quarters of countries around the world have not set or aren’t meeting national pollution standards.
Though global pollution was slightly lower in 2022, its burden on life expectancy remains, according to new data from the Air Quality Life Index (AQLI).
If the world were to permanently reduce fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) to meet the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) guideline, the average person would add 1.9 years onto their life expectancy—or a combined 14.9 billion life-years saved worldwide.
This data makes clear that particulate pollution is the world’s greatest external risk to human health. Its impact on life expectancy is comparable to that of smoking, more than 4 times that of high alcohol use, more than 5 times that of transport injuries like car crashes, and more than 6 times that of HIV/AIDS.
Yet, the pollution challenge worldwide is vastly unequal, with people living in the most polluted places on earth breathing air that is six times more polluted than the air breathed by those living in the least polluted places—and seeing their lives cut short by 2.7 years more because of it.
“While air pollution remains a global problem, its largest impacts are concentrated in a relatively small number of countries—cutting lives short several years in some places and even more than 6 years in some regions,” says Michael Greenstone, the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics and creator of the AQLI along with colleagues at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC).
“All too often, high pollution concentrations reflect low ambition in setting policy or a failure to successfully enforce existing policies. As countries balance their economic, health, and environmental goals, the AQLI will continue to shine a light on the longer lives that air pollution reductions deliver.”
National standards are an important tool to set strong policies and improve air quality. These standards—some strong and some weak—reflect the multiple policy goals countries have as they balance economic, environmental, and health goals.
However, a third of the world’s population lives in regions that don’t meet the standards that their countries have set.
If those countries did meet their own benchmarks, these 3 billion people would live an average of 1.2 years longer.
“Setting ambitious standards is only one part of the puzzle,” says Tanushree Ganguly, the director of the AQLI. “Equally important is implementing policies and monitoring mechanisms that help enforce these standards. Some countries are succeeding in this, and that gives proof that air pollution is a solvable problem.”
While 37 out of 94 countries with standards aren’t meeting them, more than half of all countries and territories have not set a standard at all. Together, 77 percent of countries and territories worldwide have either not met or do not have a national standard.
Of the countries with no standard, almost none (less than 1 percent) of the governments provide fully open pollution data and two-thirds don’t have any government pollution monitoring. With little data, it is difficult to set pollution standards and enforce them.
To help confront this challenge, this year EPIC launched the EPIC Air Quality Fund to support local groups and organizations in installing monitors and providing open data to communities that could benefit the most.
“Highly polluted countries that have little or no air quality data often fall into a bad feedback cycle where having little data leads to little attention or policy investment in the issue which reinforces little demand for data,” says Christa Hasenkopf, the director of the Clean Air Program at EPIC.
“Fortunately, there is a massive opportunity to stop this cycle with even a small amount of persistent, open-air quality data. Such data is essential for crafting and reinforcing national standards.”
South Asia
Global pollution declined in 2022 due almost entirely to a trend reversal in South Asia. While pollution had been on the rise for more than a decade, it declined by 18 percent in one year.
While it’s difficult to know for sure the reasons for this decline, meteorological causes—such as above-normal rainfall—likely played a strong role and only time will tell whether policy changes are having an impact.
Even with the decline, the region remains the most polluted in the world, accounting for 45 percent of total life years lost due to high pollution.
The average person living in these countries would gain 3.5 years onto their lives if pollution were permanently reduced to meet the World Health Organisation guideline.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Bangladesh to maintain a tight monetary policy to contain inflation, while stressing that monetary tightening alone will not be enough to restore economic stability.
Inflation in Bangladesh rose to 8 per cent in September, according to the IMF. The Washington-based lender has called for broader reforms in the financial sector, stronger revenue mobilisation and improvements in overall economic management to address the country’s persistent economic challenges.
Sonali Jain-Chandra, deputy director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, made the remarks in response to a question at a news conference on the economic outlook for Asia and the Pacific, held on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Group annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.
Asked whether tight monetary policy alone would be sufficient to tackle inflationary pressures that have persisted for more than three and a half years, Jain-Chandra said maintaining a restrictive monetary stance was important, but needed to be accompanied by other reforms.
Bangladesh is currently facing challenges in three key areas: revenue mobilisation, the financial sector and inflation, she said.
The IMF also expressed concern over the fragile state of Bangladesh’s financial sector, saying a credible reform strategy was needed to strengthen the sector’s capacity and ensure stability.
The fund also highlighted the country’s persistently weak revenue collection. Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio has declined over time and currently stands at around 7 per cent, placing it among the lowest in the world, according to the IMF.
The IMF stressed the need for a coordinated effort to increase revenue collection, saying higher government revenues were essential to finance development expenditure and strengthen the financial sector.
It called for necessary reforms to the revenue system and effective measures to improve the government’s capacity to generate income.
Talks Under Way on New IMF Programme
Meanwhile, discussions are continuing on a potential new lending programme for Bangladesh.
Jain-Chandra said Bangladeshi authorities approached the IMF in May for support under a new programme after deciding not to draw further instalments under the previous arrangement.
In response to the request, an IMF mission visited Dhaka in July to discuss various aspects of Bangladesh’s economic reform agenda.
According to Jain-Chandra, the reform issues discussed during the visit were closely aligned with the recommendations outlined in the IMF’s Article IV consultation for Bangladesh earlier this year.
The IMF has remained in regular contact with Bangladeshi authorities since the July visit, she said.
Jain-Chandra added that the fund remained closely engaged with the authorities and was ready to support Bangladesh in initiating the reforms needed to address its economic challenges.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3.2 per cent in the 2026-27 fiscal year, while average inflation could rise to 10.9 per cent, signalling mounting pressure on the country’s economy.
The projections were outlined in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released on Tuesday.
The latest growth forecast marks a significant downward revision from the 4.3 per cent projected by the IMF in April. The fund had subsequently forecast growth of 3.5 per cent in July before lowering its estimate further to 3.2 per cent.
The IMF has also sharply revised its inflation outlook for Bangladesh. In April, it projected average inflation of 6 per cent for the 2026-27 fiscal year. The latest estimate raises that figure to 10.9 per cent.
The combination of slower economic growth and persistently high inflation points to continued pressure on Bangladesh’s macroeconomic stability.
Bangladesh growth outlook trails other forecasts
The IMF’s latest growth projection for Bangladesh is lower than those of other major international development institutions.
The World Bank has forecast GDP growth of 3.4 per cent for Bangladesh in the 2026-27 fiscal year, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected growth of 4 per cent.
According to the IMF, Bangladesh’s economy grew by 3.6 per cent in the 2025-26 fiscal year, following growth of 3.5 per cent in the preceding fiscal year.
India, Bhutan expected to grow faster
The IMF has projected stronger economic growth in neighbouring countries, with India’s economy expected to expand by 7 per cent and Bhutan’s by 6.9 per cent in the relevant fiscal year.
The contrasting forecasts highlight the challenges facing Bangladesh as it seeks to restore economic momentum while tackling persistent inflation.
The IMF’s latest projections come as the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group are underway in Bangkok, Thailand.
Bangladesh’s economic situation, reform programmes and efforts to secure financing from development partners are among the key issues receiving attention during the meetings.
The World Bank supports the Bangladesh government’s policies to address the country’s current economic challenges, restore stability and implement medium- and long-term development plans, Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said on Tuesday.
He said the global lender was broadly aligned with Bangladesh’s economic programmes and policy priorities and would continue to support the country’s economic recovery and future development.
The finance minister made the remarks while speaking to journalists after a meeting with a World Bank managing director in Bangkok, Thailand, on October 13.
Amir Khasru said Bangladesh’s economy was facing significant challenges when the current government took office. Alongside dealing with the financial and economic burdens inherited from the previous period, the country was also having to navigate global economic disruptions caused by ongoing wars and geopolitical tensions.
He said the World Bank understood the realities facing Bangladesh and supported the government’s policy approach to overcoming the economic difficulties.
“The World Bank is aligned with the programmes and policy direction we have set to restore economic stability and ensure future development,” the minister said, adding that both sides would continue working together.
He said the World Bank was willing and prepared to provide the assistance Bangladesh needed.
No decision yet on proposed $10 billion in additional assistance
Clarifying reports that Bangladesh had sought an additional $10 billion in assistance from the World Bank, the finance minister said no final decision had been made.
He said discussions with the lender were ongoing and that possible proposals would be reviewed in light of those discussions. The process could take several months to complete, he added.
“No decision is being made at this stage. I have seen several inaccurate reports here and there. This is a discussion, and there will be follow-up based on these talks. It is a process that will continue over the next few months,” he said.
The minister stressed that the ongoing discussions should not be interpreted as a final agreement. Rather, they were intended to establish a basis for determining the next steps and considering possible decisions.
Further discussions would also take place in Dhaka, he said.
Expressing satisfaction with the progress of the talks, Amir Khasru said Bangladesh was in a favourable position to establish a framework for future cooperation.
He reiterated that the government’s economic policies, programmes and medium- and long-term development plans were broadly aligned with the World Bank’s position.
Government’s economic agenda aligned with BNP manifesto
The finance minister also said the World Bank’s position was consistent with the government’s economic plans and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) election manifesto.
He said discussions were underway on how to address the country’s economic challenges and achieve the government’s development objectives.
According to the minister, the government has submitted a written proposal outlining a framework for partnership with the World Bank. Discussions on the proposed framework will continue.
He said the World Bank had provided various recommendations and suggestions, while Bangladesh had also presented its own proposals and recommendations.
Further discussions would be based on these submissions, he added.
Government optimistic about inflation and GDP targets
Asked about forecasts by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and how they compared with the government’s targets, the finance minister said the government did not intend to dispute the projections made by other institutions.
He said the institutions had prepared their forecasts based on their own calculations and analyses, adding that the country’s economic performance would become clearer as progress on key indicators was assessed over time.
“We do not want to dispute anyone’s projections. They have made their estimates based on their own calculations. We are carrying out our work, and they are doing theirs. What matters most is that the cooperation we need continues,” he said.
The minister expressed optimism that the government would be able to meet the inflation targets set out in the national budget.
He said the government was working to restore economic stability through continued engagement with the World Bank, implementation of its economic policies and progress on medium- and long-term development plans.
