Economy
Bloomberg lauds PM Sheikh Hasina for reforms to maintain economic stability
The globally famed Bloomberg news agency has praised Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for her “timely reform steps” to negate the impacts of the worldwide economic crisis in Bangladesh, predicting the initiatives to elect her government for the fourth straight term in the next general elections.
“She is expected to win a fourth straight term in the elections,” BSS reports quoting Bloomerg’s article, which simultaneously suggests Sheikh Hasina “needs to push more reforms to receive all funds.”
“Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is widely expected to win a fourth straight term in national polls expected by January 2024 — not least because many of her opponents are behind bars or ensnared in legal cases”.
Bloomberg published the article against the backdrop of Bangladesh’s receipt of International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans which it attributed to the South Asian country’s timely reforms to maintain economic stability ahead of the next national election.
The article commented that Sheikh Hasina’s victory was expected not merely “because many of her opponents are behind bars or ensnared in legal cases” but due to her success in ensuring economic stability.
Following is the full Bloomberg article headlined “Bangladesh Leader Bets IMF-Mandated Rigor Will Pay Off in Polls” with two sub-heads:
Sheikh Hasina needs to push more reforms to receive all funds
She is expected to win a fourth straight term in the elections
Government leaders across the world have often balked at implementing reforms agreed with the International Monetary Fund for fear of being penalized at the ballot box. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina isn’t one of them.
Her quick execution of IMF mandates have stood out in South Asia where Pakistan is still fiddling with fuel subsidies just as it inches closer to reviving a bailout. Sri Lanka has delayed local municipal polls as it raised taxes and interest rates to clinch IMF funds last week.
Bangladesh, which in July became the last of the three countries to ask for IMF support, was the first to get loans approved after swiftly raising energy prices. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina made no apologies for the move.
“Gas and electricity supply can be provided if all agree to pay the purchasing costs,” she said a week $4.7 billion in IMF loans were secured on Jan. 31. “How much subsidy can be given? And why should we continue subsidies?”
Such comments are typically unheard of as elections approach: All three nations face key votes over the next 18 months. But unlike leaders in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, PM Sheikh Hasina is widely expected to win a fourth straight term in national polls expected by January 2024 — not least because many of her opponents are behind bars or ensnared in legal cases.
“If the ruling party manages to maintain economic stability, that could preempt anger or public sentiment that works against the government,” said Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute. “PM Sheikh Hasina certainly has the credibility to pull this off.”
In contrast, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif polled low in a survey ahead of elections later this year and has been blamed by voters for the economic crisis. While Sri Lankan leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has pushed through reforms, he depends on the support of a party run by a powerful clan and will need to seek a new mandate in presidential elections due September 2024.
PM Sheikh Hasina is banking on her government’s move to go to the IMF to show to markets and voters that she has prevented the $460 billion Bangladeshi economy from going the way Sri Lanka has with a default. Pakistan is also facing the prospect of a default.
Bangladesh went to the IMF as it grappled with an energy crisis with commodity prices soaring last year due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, while the rising costs of imports widened the trade deficit. The local currency depreciated by a fifth and reserves fell to the lowest in three years.
By winning access to IMF funds, Sheikh Hasina’s government is gaining some time to fix the economy before the elections. Signs of a weakening economy could well trigger public anger against the premier who has overseen growth of more than 6 pecent on average for the past 14 years though it slowed to about 3.5 percent during the pandemic.
The first review of the IMF program is set for the second half of 2023, and Bangladesh Mission Chief Rahul Anand sees the authorities “taking comprehensive steps” to unwind subsidies and move to a market-driven exchange rate.
Bangladesh has received $476 million under the facility so far. Further disbursements depend on the government ensuring reforms for the financial sector, ranging from the central bank pursuing an independent monetary policy to reducing non-performing loans and spurring climate change funding.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Bangladesh to maintain a tight monetary policy to contain inflation, while stressing that monetary tightening alone will not be enough to restore economic stability.
Inflation in Bangladesh rose to 8 per cent in September, according to the IMF. The Washington-based lender has called for broader reforms in the financial sector, stronger revenue mobilisation and improvements in overall economic management to address the country’s persistent economic challenges.
Sonali Jain-Chandra, deputy director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, made the remarks in response to a question at a news conference on the economic outlook for Asia and the Pacific, held on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank Group annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.
Asked whether tight monetary policy alone would be sufficient to tackle inflationary pressures that have persisted for more than three and a half years, Jain-Chandra said maintaining a restrictive monetary stance was important, but needed to be accompanied by other reforms.
Bangladesh is currently facing challenges in three key areas: revenue mobilisation, the financial sector and inflation, she said.
The IMF also expressed concern over the fragile state of Bangladesh’s financial sector, saying a credible reform strategy was needed to strengthen the sector’s capacity and ensure stability.
The fund also highlighted the country’s persistently weak revenue collection. Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio has declined over time and currently stands at around 7 per cent, placing it among the lowest in the world, according to the IMF.
The IMF stressed the need for a coordinated effort to increase revenue collection, saying higher government revenues were essential to finance development expenditure and strengthen the financial sector.
It called for necessary reforms to the revenue system and effective measures to improve the government’s capacity to generate income.
Talks Under Way on New IMF Programme
Meanwhile, discussions are continuing on a potential new lending programme for Bangladesh.
Jain-Chandra said Bangladeshi authorities approached the IMF in May for support under a new programme after deciding not to draw further instalments under the previous arrangement.
In response to the request, an IMF mission visited Dhaka in July to discuss various aspects of Bangladesh’s economic reform agenda.
According to Jain-Chandra, the reform issues discussed during the visit were closely aligned with the recommendations outlined in the IMF’s Article IV consultation for Bangladesh earlier this year.
The IMF has remained in regular contact with Bangladeshi authorities since the July visit, she said.
Jain-Chandra added that the fund remained closely engaged with the authorities and was ready to support Bangladesh in initiating the reforms needed to address its economic challenges.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3.2 per cent in the 2026-27 fiscal year, while average inflation could rise to 10.9 per cent, signalling mounting pressure on the country’s economy.
The projections were outlined in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released on Tuesday.
The latest growth forecast marks a significant downward revision from the 4.3 per cent projected by the IMF in April. The fund had subsequently forecast growth of 3.5 per cent in July before lowering its estimate further to 3.2 per cent.
The IMF has also sharply revised its inflation outlook for Bangladesh. In April, it projected average inflation of 6 per cent for the 2026-27 fiscal year. The latest estimate raises that figure to 10.9 per cent.
The combination of slower economic growth and persistently high inflation points to continued pressure on Bangladesh’s macroeconomic stability.
Bangladesh growth outlook trails other forecasts
The IMF’s latest growth projection for Bangladesh is lower than those of other major international development institutions.
The World Bank has forecast GDP growth of 3.4 per cent for Bangladesh in the 2026-27 fiscal year, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected growth of 4 per cent.
According to the IMF, Bangladesh’s economy grew by 3.6 per cent in the 2025-26 fiscal year, following growth of 3.5 per cent in the preceding fiscal year.
India, Bhutan expected to grow faster
The IMF has projected stronger economic growth in neighbouring countries, with India’s economy expected to expand by 7 per cent and Bhutan’s by 6.9 per cent in the relevant fiscal year.
The contrasting forecasts highlight the challenges facing Bangladesh as it seeks to restore economic momentum while tackling persistent inflation.
The IMF’s latest projections come as the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group are underway in Bangkok, Thailand.
Bangladesh’s economic situation, reform programmes and efforts to secure financing from development partners are among the key issues receiving attention during the meetings.
The World Bank supports the Bangladesh government’s policies to address the country’s current economic challenges, restore stability and implement medium- and long-term development plans, Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said on Tuesday.
He said the global lender was broadly aligned with Bangladesh’s economic programmes and policy priorities and would continue to support the country’s economic recovery and future development.
The finance minister made the remarks while speaking to journalists after a meeting with a World Bank managing director in Bangkok, Thailand, on October 13.
Amir Khasru said Bangladesh’s economy was facing significant challenges when the current government took office. Alongside dealing with the financial and economic burdens inherited from the previous period, the country was also having to navigate global economic disruptions caused by ongoing wars and geopolitical tensions.
He said the World Bank understood the realities facing Bangladesh and supported the government’s policy approach to overcoming the economic difficulties.
“The World Bank is aligned with the programmes and policy direction we have set to restore economic stability and ensure future development,” the minister said, adding that both sides would continue working together.
He said the World Bank was willing and prepared to provide the assistance Bangladesh needed.
No decision yet on proposed $10 billion in additional assistance
Clarifying reports that Bangladesh had sought an additional $10 billion in assistance from the World Bank, the finance minister said no final decision had been made.
He said discussions with the lender were ongoing and that possible proposals would be reviewed in light of those discussions. The process could take several months to complete, he added.
“No decision is being made at this stage. I have seen several inaccurate reports here and there. This is a discussion, and there will be follow-up based on these talks. It is a process that will continue over the next few months,” he said.
The minister stressed that the ongoing discussions should not be interpreted as a final agreement. Rather, they were intended to establish a basis for determining the next steps and considering possible decisions.
Further discussions would also take place in Dhaka, he said.
Expressing satisfaction with the progress of the talks, Amir Khasru said Bangladesh was in a favourable position to establish a framework for future cooperation.
He reiterated that the government’s economic policies, programmes and medium- and long-term development plans were broadly aligned with the World Bank’s position.
Government’s economic agenda aligned with BNP manifesto
The finance minister also said the World Bank’s position was consistent with the government’s economic plans and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) election manifesto.
He said discussions were underway on how to address the country’s economic challenges and achieve the government’s development objectives.
According to the minister, the government has submitted a written proposal outlining a framework for partnership with the World Bank. Discussions on the proposed framework will continue.
He said the World Bank had provided various recommendations and suggestions, while Bangladesh had also presented its own proposals and recommendations.
Further discussions would be based on these submissions, he added.
Government optimistic about inflation and GDP targets
Asked about forecasts by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and how they compared with the government’s targets, the finance minister said the government did not intend to dispute the projections made by other institutions.
He said the institutions had prepared their forecasts based on their own calculations and analyses, adding that the country’s economic performance would become clearer as progress on key indicators was assessed over time.
“We do not want to dispute anyone’s projections. They have made their estimates based on their own calculations. We are carrying out our work, and they are doing theirs. What matters most is that the cooperation we need continues,” he said.
The minister expressed optimism that the government would be able to meet the inflation targets set out in the national budget.
He said the government was working to restore economic stability through continued engagement with the World Bank, implementation of its economic policies and progress on medium- and long-term development plans.
