Economy
Smart move. Bangladesh turns to loans in yen to ease repayment pressure
In a move to manage risks associated with rising interest rates and a volatile US dollar, the government has decided to take some loans from the development partners in Japanese yen instead of dollars.
The yen loans are being taken particularly for scale-up window loans from the World Bank at market-based interest rates, according to officials at the Economic Relations Division (ERD).
Budget support of $300 million and an amount equivalent to $400 million for a project are being taken from the World Bank in the Japanese currency, they said.
After disbursement, the Japanese currency will be used to buy dollars, said the officials. Despite some temporary losses, this will reduce the pressure of interest and principal repayment on implementation loans, they said. The ERD, the Finance Division, and the Bangladesh Bank jointly made the decision.
The ERD officials said if loans are taken in yen instead of dollars, the overall interest rate would be much lower.
This will provide some relief from the current pressure the government faces in paying interest, they said. Besides, since the Japanese currency experiences less fluctuation compared to the dollar, there will be reduced risk in repaying the principal amount of the loan in the future, they said.
Zahid Hossain, a former lead economist of the World Bank office in Dhaka, told the news reporter, “The interest rate on the yen-denominated loan is likely to be lower since it is based on the Tokyo Overnight Average Rate (TONA) which tends to be significantly lower than SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) or LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate). The risk of valuation loss due to exchange rate fluctuations is not that different from borrowing in SDR (Special Drawing Rights) or USD.”
He went on to say, “Using the scale-up window allows Bangladesh to top up the core IDA (International Development Association) financing. Of course, the money from the SUW (scale-up window) is more expensive. But if we fully use up the core IDA, this is the next best option.”
The ERD officials said a proposal for a $500-million budget support loan will be presented at a World Bank’s board meeting to be held on 21 June. Of the amount, an amount equivalent to $300 million will be taken in yen, they said.
The interest rate for this loan will be TONA plus a variable spread, which is determined by the World Bank every three months, said the officials. The repayment period will be 35 years, including a 4-year grace period, and a front-end fee of 0.25% will be charged, they said. Additionally, a commitment fee of 0.25% will be applied to undisbursed funds, said the officials.
According to the ERD officials, the government is taking the remaining $200 million loan from the World Bank’s scale-up window-shorter maturity. The repayment period for the loan will be 12 years, including a 6-year grace period.
Interest on yen loan way cheaper
The ERD officials said if loans are taken in dollars, the overall interest rate would be approximately 7%. On the other hand, loans taken in Japanese currency would require Bangladesh to pay a much lower interest rate (around 2%), they said.
If $300 million is taken in dollars, it will be based on the SOFR. Variable spread will be added to this.
Since the Ukraine-Russia war, the SOFR has increased significantly. Even two years ago, the SOFR was less than 1%. Due to the rise in the SOFR, Bangladesh is facing pressure to repay its debts.
Data released by the Economic Relations Division shows that the government spent nearly $1.15 billion (equivalent to Tk12,626 crore) on interest payments in the first 10 months up to April of the current year, surpassing the annual allocation of Tk12,376 crore. The allocation was increased to Tk15,800 in the revised budget later.
According to the budget document released by the Ministry of Finance, it has been allocated Tk20,500 crore for the repayment of foreign loans in the upcoming fiscal year. The increase in interest payments is mainly due to the rise in the SORF rate in the international market, putting pressure on interest payments.
During his recent budget speech, Finance Minister Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali said, “Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) which is used as one of the reference rates around the world was only 0.5% in January 2022. To manage the inflationary situation arising from the Ukraine-Russia war, most of the developed countries including the USA increased their interest rates. As a result, the 6-month average of SOFR increased and stood at 5.4% in May 2024. For the same reason, the other developed nations including those in Europe enhanced the interest rate which affected the reference rate of EURIBOR, TONA, etc.”
Project loans to be received in yen
According to the ERD officials, the World Bank has recently increased the amount of loan for the construction of the container terminal in Chittagong. The World Bank announced that it will provide a loan of $650 million for the project, whereas previously it was planned to provide a loan of $350 million.
Out of the $650 million loan, the government has decided to borrow an equivalent of $400 million in Japanese currency. The interest rate for the loan will be based on the Tokyo overnight average rate plus a variable rate.
Besides, a loan equivalent to $150 million will be obtained in SDR, for which no interest will be charged. Furthermore, a loan equivalent to $100 million will be taken in SDR as well, and the interest rate for the loan will be 0.75%.
The decision was made during a high-level meeting at the ministry on 29 May regarding the container terminal project.
According to the minutes of the meeting, a representative from the Bangladesh Bank informed the discussants that they analysed one loan from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), where they found that the loan in the yen is more concessional than any other currency right now.
“Now the TONA reference rate is 0.077% and the variable spread is 0.73%. Considering the other options and current situation this blending is a good option,” she said.
AIIB loans in yen too
Apart from the World Bank, the government is also considering borrowing in other currencies instead of dollars for projects financed by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), said the ERD officials.
Due to the higher market-based interest rates, the government is not planning to take any loans from the AIIB for any project in the current fiscal year, they said. However, the officials said, they are considering taking a $400 million budget support loan from the lender.
The said borrowing in currencies other than dollars for development projects as well is under consideration.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3.2 per cent in the 2026-27 fiscal year, while average inflation could rise to 10.9 per cent, signalling mounting pressure on the country’s economy.
The projections were outlined in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, released on Tuesday.
The latest growth forecast marks a significant downward revision from the 4.3 per cent projected by the IMF in April. The fund had subsequently forecast growth of 3.5 per cent in July before lowering its estimate further to 3.2 per cent.
The IMF has also sharply revised its inflation outlook for Bangladesh. In April, it projected average inflation of 6 per cent for the 2026-27 fiscal year. The latest estimate raises that figure to 10.9 per cent.
The combination of slower economic growth and persistently high inflation points to continued pressure on Bangladesh’s macroeconomic stability.
Bangladesh growth outlook trails other forecasts
The IMF’s latest growth projection for Bangladesh is lower than those of other major international development institutions.
The World Bank has forecast GDP growth of 3.4 per cent for Bangladesh in the 2026-27 fiscal year, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected growth of 4 per cent.
According to the IMF, Bangladesh’s economy grew by 3.6 per cent in the 2025-26 fiscal year, following growth of 3.5 per cent in the preceding fiscal year.
India, Bhutan expected to grow faster
The IMF has projected stronger economic growth in neighbouring countries, with India’s economy expected to expand by 7 per cent and Bhutan’s by 6.9 per cent in the relevant fiscal year.
The contrasting forecasts highlight the challenges facing Bangladesh as it seeks to restore economic momentum while tackling persistent inflation.
The IMF’s latest projections come as the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group are underway in Bangkok, Thailand.
Bangladesh’s economic situation, reform programmes and efforts to secure financing from development partners are among the key issues receiving attention during the meetings.
The World Bank supports the Bangladesh government’s policies to address the country’s current economic challenges, restore stability and implement medium- and long-term development plans, Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said on Tuesday.
He said the global lender was broadly aligned with Bangladesh’s economic programmes and policy priorities and would continue to support the country’s economic recovery and future development.
The finance minister made the remarks while speaking to journalists after a meeting with a World Bank managing director in Bangkok, Thailand, on October 13.
Amir Khasru said Bangladesh’s economy was facing significant challenges when the current government took office. Alongside dealing with the financial and economic burdens inherited from the previous period, the country was also having to navigate global economic disruptions caused by ongoing wars and geopolitical tensions.
He said the World Bank understood the realities facing Bangladesh and supported the government’s policy approach to overcoming the economic difficulties.
“The World Bank is aligned with the programmes and policy direction we have set to restore economic stability and ensure future development,” the minister said, adding that both sides would continue working together.
He said the World Bank was willing and prepared to provide the assistance Bangladesh needed.
No decision yet on proposed $10 billion in additional assistance
Clarifying reports that Bangladesh had sought an additional $10 billion in assistance from the World Bank, the finance minister said no final decision had been made.
He said discussions with the lender were ongoing and that possible proposals would be reviewed in light of those discussions. The process could take several months to complete, he added.
“No decision is being made at this stage. I have seen several inaccurate reports here and there. This is a discussion, and there will be follow-up based on these talks. It is a process that will continue over the next few months,” he said.
The minister stressed that the ongoing discussions should not be interpreted as a final agreement. Rather, they were intended to establish a basis for determining the next steps and considering possible decisions.
Further discussions would also take place in Dhaka, he said.
Expressing satisfaction with the progress of the talks, Amir Khasru said Bangladesh was in a favourable position to establish a framework for future cooperation.
He reiterated that the government’s economic policies, programmes and medium- and long-term development plans were broadly aligned with the World Bank’s position.
Government’s economic agenda aligned with BNP manifesto
The finance minister also said the World Bank’s position was consistent with the government’s economic plans and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) election manifesto.
He said discussions were underway on how to address the country’s economic challenges and achieve the government’s development objectives.
According to the minister, the government has submitted a written proposal outlining a framework for partnership with the World Bank. Discussions on the proposed framework will continue.
He said the World Bank had provided various recommendations and suggestions, while Bangladesh had also presented its own proposals and recommendations.
Further discussions would be based on these submissions, he added.
Government optimistic about inflation and GDP targets
Asked about forecasts by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and how they compared with the government’s targets, the finance minister said the government did not intend to dispute the projections made by other institutions.
He said the institutions had prepared their forecasts based on their own calculations and analyses, adding that the country’s economic performance would become clearer as progress on key indicators was assessed over time.
“We do not want to dispute anyone’s projections. They have made their estimates based on their own calculations. We are carrying out our work, and they are doing theirs. What matters most is that the cooperation we need continues,” he said.
The minister expressed optimism that the government would be able to meet the inflation targets set out in the national budget.
He said the government was working to restore economic stability through continued engagement with the World Bank, implementation of its economic policies and progress on medium- and long-term development plans.
Bangladesh has sought financial assistance from the World Bank to help meet rising energy costs amid global economic uncertainty, Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said on Monday.
Speaking to reporters in Bangkok on the sidelines of the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group, the minister said discussions with the World Bank were underway on possible financial support. Work was also progressing on a proposed framework agreement between the two sides, he added.
The minister expressed hope that the World Bank would continue to support Bangladesh as the country navigates mounting economic challenges.
He said global instability had increased the financial burden on Bangladesh’s energy sector, making additional support important to help manage the rising costs. According to the minister, the World Bank had responded positively to discussions on possible assistance.
Bangladesh’s engagement with the lender should go beyond existing funding arrangements and ongoing development projects, he said, stressing the need for broader cooperation to address the economic pressures arising from global uncertainty and higher energy expenditure.
Framework Agreement Under Discussion
Bangladesh and the World Bank are also working towards a framework agreement to strengthen their partnership, the minister said.
Discussions and related procedural work are continuing, with further steps dependent on progress in negotiations and agreement between the two sides.
The minister also emphasised the need to align development initiatives supported by international partners with the government’s election manifesto and national development priorities.
He said coordination between government policies and external assistance would be important in advancing Bangladesh’s economic objectives.
Bangladesh’s IMF Engagement Also in Focus
The possibility of a new lending programme with the IMF is another issue of interest for Bangladesh during the annual meetings, scheduled for October 12-18.
The meetings bring together finance ministers, central bank governors and senior officials from international financial institutions to discuss global economic developments, financing needs and development priorities.
For Bangladesh, a potential new IMF programme could provide additional external financing and support efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability. However, the size, terms and timeline of any new arrangement have not been formally confirmed.
Rising Global Costs Put Pressure on Bangladesh
Geopolitical tensions, volatile energy markets, inflation and higher borrowing costs continue to pose challenges for economies worldwide, particularly those heavily dependent on imports.
For Bangladesh, higher energy import bills can increase pressure on foreign exchange reserves and complicate government expenditure planning.
While financing from international development partners could help ease some of these pressures, sustained economic stability also depends on stronger revenue collection, improvements in the banking sector, more efficient public spending and a business environment conducive to investment.
Bangladesh’s participation in the annual meetings is therefore focused not only on securing financial assistance but also on strengthening development partnerships and exploring ways to address immediate economic pressures while pursuing longer-term development goals.
The outcome of the discussions with the World Bank, along with any progress towards a new IMF lending arrangement, will be important in determining the extent of additional external support available to Bangladesh.
