Economy
Smart move. Bangladesh turns to loans in yen to ease repayment pressure
In a move to manage risks associated with rising interest rates and a volatile US dollar, the government has decided to take some loans from the development partners in Japanese yen instead of dollars.
The yen loans are being taken particularly for scale-up window loans from the World Bank at market-based interest rates, according to officials at the Economic Relations Division (ERD).
Budget support of $300 million and an amount equivalent to $400 million for a project are being taken from the World Bank in the Japanese currency, they said.
After disbursement, the Japanese currency will be used to buy dollars, said the officials. Despite some temporary losses, this will reduce the pressure of interest and principal repayment on implementation loans, they said. The ERD, the Finance Division, and the Bangladesh Bank jointly made the decision.
The ERD officials said if loans are taken in yen instead of dollars, the overall interest rate would be much lower.
This will provide some relief from the current pressure the government faces in paying interest, they said. Besides, since the Japanese currency experiences less fluctuation compared to the dollar, there will be reduced risk in repaying the principal amount of the loan in the future, they said.
Zahid Hossain, a former lead economist of the World Bank office in Dhaka, told the news reporter, “The interest rate on the yen-denominated loan is likely to be lower since it is based on the Tokyo Overnight Average Rate (TONA) which tends to be significantly lower than SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) or LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate). The risk of valuation loss due to exchange rate fluctuations is not that different from borrowing in SDR (Special Drawing Rights) or USD.”
He went on to say, “Using the scale-up window allows Bangladesh to top up the core IDA (International Development Association) financing. Of course, the money from the SUW (scale-up window) is more expensive. But if we fully use up the core IDA, this is the next best option.”
The ERD officials said a proposal for a $500-million budget support loan will be presented at a World Bank’s board meeting to be held on 21 June. Of the amount, an amount equivalent to $300 million will be taken in yen, they said.
The interest rate for this loan will be TONA plus a variable spread, which is determined by the World Bank every three months, said the officials. The repayment period will be 35 years, including a 4-year grace period, and a front-end fee of 0.25% will be charged, they said. Additionally, a commitment fee of 0.25% will be applied to undisbursed funds, said the officials.
According to the ERD officials, the government is taking the remaining $200 million loan from the World Bank’s scale-up window-shorter maturity. The repayment period for the loan will be 12 years, including a 6-year grace period.
Interest on yen loan way cheaper
The ERD officials said if loans are taken in dollars, the overall interest rate would be approximately 7%. On the other hand, loans taken in Japanese currency would require Bangladesh to pay a much lower interest rate (around 2%), they said.
If $300 million is taken in dollars, it will be based on the SOFR. Variable spread will be added to this.
Since the Ukraine-Russia war, the SOFR has increased significantly. Even two years ago, the SOFR was less than 1%. Due to the rise in the SOFR, Bangladesh is facing pressure to repay its debts.
Data released by the Economic Relations Division shows that the government spent nearly $1.15 billion (equivalent to Tk12,626 crore) on interest payments in the first 10 months up to April of the current year, surpassing the annual allocation of Tk12,376 crore. The allocation was increased to Tk15,800 in the revised budget later.
According to the budget document released by the Ministry of Finance, it has been allocated Tk20,500 crore for the repayment of foreign loans in the upcoming fiscal year. The increase in interest payments is mainly due to the rise in the SORF rate in the international market, putting pressure on interest payments.
During his recent budget speech, Finance Minister Abul Hassan Mahmood Ali said, “Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) which is used as one of the reference rates around the world was only 0.5% in January 2022. To manage the inflationary situation arising from the Ukraine-Russia war, most of the developed countries including the USA increased their interest rates. As a result, the 6-month average of SOFR increased and stood at 5.4% in May 2024. For the same reason, the other developed nations including those in Europe enhanced the interest rate which affected the reference rate of EURIBOR, TONA, etc.”
Project loans to be received in yen
According to the ERD officials, the World Bank has recently increased the amount of loan for the construction of the container terminal in Chittagong. The World Bank announced that it will provide a loan of $650 million for the project, whereas previously it was planned to provide a loan of $350 million.
Out of the $650 million loan, the government has decided to borrow an equivalent of $400 million in Japanese currency. The interest rate for the loan will be based on the Tokyo overnight average rate plus a variable rate.
Besides, a loan equivalent to $150 million will be obtained in SDR, for which no interest will be charged. Furthermore, a loan equivalent to $100 million will be taken in SDR as well, and the interest rate for the loan will be 0.75%.
The decision was made during a high-level meeting at the ministry on 29 May regarding the container terminal project.
According to the minutes of the meeting, a representative from the Bangladesh Bank informed the discussants that they analysed one loan from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), where they found that the loan in the yen is more concessional than any other currency right now.
“Now the TONA reference rate is 0.077% and the variable spread is 0.73%. Considering the other options and current situation this blending is a good option,” she said.
AIIB loans in yen too
Apart from the World Bank, the government is also considering borrowing in other currencies instead of dollars for projects financed by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), said the ERD officials.
Due to the higher market-based interest rates, the government is not planning to take any loans from the AIIB for any project in the current fiscal year, they said. However, the officials said, they are considering taking a $400 million budget support loan from the lender.
The said borrowing in currencies other than dollars for development projects as well is under consideration.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina announced today (June 22) that Bangladesh and India have agreed on a shared vision for a digital and green partnership aimed at ensuring a sustainable future for both nations.
In a joint statement before the media following her meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, Hasina said, “Both countries endorsed the ‘Vision Statement’ to guide us toward a peaceful and prosperous future. We agreed to have a shared vision for ‘Digital Partnership’ and ‘Green Partnership for a Sustainable Future.'”
The bilateral discussions covered a broad range of topics, including water sharing from common rivers, security, and trade. Hasina emphasized the importance of India as Bangladesh’s major neighbor, trusted friend, and regional partner, highlighting the deep historical ties since Bangladesh’s War of Liberation in 1971.
“Our relations with India are ever-growing at a fast pace,” Hasina noted. “Today, our two sides had very productive meetings where we discussed politics and security, trade and connectivity, the sharing of water from common rivers, power and energy, and regional and multilateral cooperation, among other issues of mutual interest.”
The Prime Minister added, “We agreed to collaborate with each other for the betterment of our people and countries.” She outlined a future course of action aimed at ensuring a smart Bangladesh by 2041 and a Viksit Bharat (Developed India) by 2047.
Hasina mentioned that several Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) were concluded and renewed, with announcements made for future collaboration. She noted that recent years have seen sustained high-level engagements between the two countries, including visits by the Indian president and prime minister to Bangladesh in 2021 to celebrate significant milestones in Bangladesh’s history.
Reflecting on her own diplomatic engagements, Hasina recalled her last bilateral visit to India in September 2022 and her attendance at the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September 2023 as the leader of ‘Guest Country’ Bangladesh. “I am now visiting New Delhi for an unprecedented second time in the same month, June 2024,” she remarked.
Earlier this month, on June 9, Hasina attended the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his new cabinet alongside other world leaders, further underscoring the close engagement between the two nations.
During her current visit, Hasina will also meet with the Vice President and the President of India. She expressed optimism that these meetings will provide deeper insights into enhancing bilateral cooperation.
“This is my first bilateral visit to any country after Bangladesh’s 12th Parliamentary Elections and the formation of the new government in January 2024,” Hasina noted, thanking the Indian government for their warm hospitality.
In her concluding remarks, Hasina paid homage to the Indian heroes who sacrificed their lives during Bangladesh’s War of Liberation in 1971, expressing gratitude for India’s contribution to Bangladesh’s independence. She also extended an invitation to Prime Minister Modi to visit Bangladesh at his earliest convenience.
The government is committed to achieving complete financial inclusion and fostering a fully inclusive society, ensuring universal access to digital resources by 2041, as part of its vision for a Smart Bangladesh.
An official document presented in Parliament outlines the plan to ensure 100% financial inclusion for all societal groups to build a smart society. The document also envisions the creation of Climate and Disaster-Resilient Smart Villages and Smart Cities, providing equitable access to civic amenities for both urban and rural populations.
The government emphasizes promoting digital access for individuals of all ages, religions, physical abilities, and social classes. It highlights the importance of fostering a digitally tolerant, fair, and inclusive society that embraces diversity.
A key objective is to rank within the top 20 of the Global Cyber Security Index. Last year, Bangladesh advanced 27 places in the National Cyber Security Index (NCSI), prepared by the Estonia-based e-Governance Academy Foundation, rising to 36th position from 85th in December 2020. The NCSI evaluates nations on cyberattack preparedness, cyber events, criminal activity, and major crisis management efforts.
Currently, Greece holds the top spot on the NCSI with a score of 97.10, while the United States and the United Kingdom rank 18th and 19th, respectively. Among Asian countries, Singapore ranks 16th, Japan 34th, Sri Lanka 69th, and Pakistan 70th.
The government is also taking steps to promote a culturally rich society through active participation in economic and governmental activities. Initiatives have been launched to make the languages of Bangladesh’s ethnic groups and the Bengali language more technology-friendly.
One such initiative is the development of ‘Sathik,’ the first Bengali spell checker for AI-based misspelling detection and accurate word suggestion. Additionally, ‘Janamat,’ a Bengali sentiment analysis software, has been created to analyze daily news and public opinion on social media.
A smart universal keyboard for writing all languages, including minority languages, has been developed, along with a conversion software to prevent the breaking of Bengali words across different platforms.
In honor of International Mother Language Day 2024 and in memory of language martyrs, three AI-based Bengali language software—Bangla Text to Speech ‘Uchcharan,’ Bengali Speech to Text ‘Katha,’ and Bengali OCR ‘Barna’—along with a new Bengali font ‘Purno,’ have been introduced.
These initiatives reflect the government’s commitment to leveraging technology for inclusive development and cultural preservation as part of its vision for a Smart Bangladesh by 2041.
As the gap widens between the number of Bangladeshis with Tax Identification Number (TIN) and those who have actually submitted returns, the country’s revenue authority seems to have accepted the fact that around 40% of TIN-holders may not file their returns this fiscal year.
Currently, there are 1.4 crore TIN-holders in the country, but a significant number of them – about 67 lakh – have not submitted tax returns as of 31 May, according to the National Board of Revenue (NBR) data.
A senior official from the NBR’s income tax department, wishing not to be named, told the news reporter, “We believe that around 40 lakh TIN-holders will not submit their returns.”
The official said, “Two months ago, we submitted a report to NBR Chairman Abu Hena Md Rahmatul Muneem, explaining the reasons for the decline in return submissions.”
The NBR appears uncertain about how to address these non-compliant TIN-holders. When asked, the official said no decision has yet been made regarding them.
“Once a TIN is registered, it cannot be cancelled arbitrarily. The provision for suspending someone’s TIN due to a lack of income in the 2023-24 budget has had limited impact,” he added.
The income tax department’s report, reviewed by the news reporter, identifies various reasons for many TIN-holders not submitting tax returns. It suggests that out of 67 lakh people with TIN who did not file returns, 54 lakh likely refrained due to these reasons.
Those who obtained TIN solely for purposes for which TIN is mandatory such as land sales and specific services are unlikely to submit their returns. Similarly, marginal traders who acquired a mandatory TIN for trade licence but whose businesses have since ceased are also unlikely to file returns.
Additionally, factors contributing to non-submission include death, extended periods of no taxable income, lack of awareness, situations where there is no requirement to show proof of submission of returns, and the extension of tax-free income limits which exempt many taxpayers from their tax obligations.
Besides, permanent departure from Bangladesh, closure or dissolution of companies, taxpayers residing abroad, issuance of duplicate TINs to the same individual, and insufficient information in the TIN database were also identified as major factors.
Taxpayers can submit their returns at any time during the fiscal year. The NBR extended the return submission deadline to 31 January this year.
Those who do not meet this deadline may still submit their returns later, either by paying a fine or by applying for an extension.
An analysis of the NBR report reveals that approximately 10 lakh TIN-holders have acquired new TINs and are required to file their returns in the upcoming fiscal 2024-25.
About 5.28 lakh obtained TINs due to requirements related to land sales. Additionally, 3.75 lakh were compelled to obtain TINs for services from various offices.
Approximately 3 lakh individuals did not file returns due to lack of awareness, and over 2.5 lakh belong to the marginal trader category who obtained TINs for trade licences but whose businesses went bust later.
There are around 2.5 lakh TIN-holders who are deceased, and more than 2 lakh people with TIN with no taxable income also did not file returns.
Over 2 lakh individuals who purchased savings instruments up to Tk2 lakh did not submit returns.
Returns for more than 11 lakh TIN-holders are unavailable due to various other reasons mentioned above.
Approximately 1.37 lakh companies registered with the Registrar of Joint Stock Companies and Firms (RJSC) have not submitted returns.
Experts recommend removing TINs from the NBR database for individuals who will not be able to submit tax returns due to logical reasons.
Dr Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), told the news reporter, “TINs belonging to individuals unlikely to file tax returns, such as those deceased or with other logical reasons, should be excluded from the NBR database.”
Additionally, for individuals without taxable income but who are required to file returns, there should be a straightforward and efficient filing process, he said.
Highlighting the need for a legal solution, Mansur said, “In other countries, although cancellation of TINs is challenging, automated management systems facilitate streamlined processes through established procedures. However, achieving similar efficiency is considerably difficult in our country.”
