World Bank fears risk of Global recession in 2023
The world might be edging toward a global recession as central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the World Bank said on Thursday.
The world’s three largest economies – the United States, China, and the euro area – have been slowing sharply, and even a “moderate hit to the global economy over the next year could tip it into recession,” the bank said in a new study.
The global economy is in its steepest slowdown following a post-recession recovery since 1970
The world’s three largest economies – the United States, China, and the euro area – have been slowing sharply
Consumer confidence dropped more sharply than in the run-up to previous global recessions
Synchronized interest rate hikes underway globally may not be enough to bring inflation back down to pre-pandemic levels
It said the global economy was now in its steepest slowdown following a post-recession recovery since 1970, and consumer confidence had already dropped more sharply than in the run-up to previous global recessions.
“Global growth is slowing sharply, with further slowing likely as more countries fall into recession,” World Bank President David Malpass said, adding his worry that these trends would persist, with devastating consequences for emerging market and developing economies.
Synchronized interest rate hikes underway globally and related policy actions were likely to continue well into next year, but might not be sufficient to bring inflation back down to levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic, the bank said.
Unless supply disruptions and labor-market pressures subsided, the global core inflation rate, excluding energy, could stay at about 5.0pc in 2023, nearly double the five-year average before the pandemic.
To drive inflation lower, central banks may need to raise interest rates by an additional 2 percentage points, on top of the 2-percentage point increase already seen over the 2021 average, it said.
IMF sees further global economic slowdown
But an increase of that size, along with financial-market stress, would slow global gross domestic product growth to 0.5pc in 2023, or a 0.4pc contraction in per–capita terms, which would meet the technical definition of a global recession, it added.
Malpass said policymakers should shift their focus from reducing consumption to boosting production, including efforts to generate additional investment and productivity gains.
Previous recessions showed the risk of allowing inflation to stay elevated for long while growth is weak, the bank said, noting that the 1982 recession triggered more than 40 debt crises and ushered in a decade of lost growth in many developing economies.
World Bank Vice President Ayhan Kose said a recent tightening of monetary and fiscal policies would help cut inflation, but the highly synchronous nature of the measures could compound the situation and steepen the global growth slowdown.
The study suggested that central banks could combat inflation without touching off a global recession by communicating their policy decisions clearly, while policymakers should put in place credible medium-term fiscal plans and continue to provide targeted relief to vulnerable households.
‘BD can attract more investment if they assure less corruption than other markers’
If Bangladesh can assure US citizens and investors that corruption is less prevalent here than in other markets, it will likely attract more investment, said US Ambassador Peter Haas.
“Corruption is a parasite that feeds on the resources of a society and drains it of its strength. It can devastate every level of business and government,” the ambassador said during the “Call to Action Against Corruption Summit” held at the Pan Pacific Sonargaon Hotel in Dhaka on Tuesday (21 March).
He said the United States is committed to working with Bangladesh to eliminate corruption, to enable Bangladeshi citizens to enjoy lives of dignity and inviting more international trade and foreign investment.
“We support initiatives that help Bangladeshi businesses meet international standards and regulations, making them more competitive in the global market.”
By promoting ethical business practices, a more level playing field can be created for businesses of all sizes and encourage more foreign investment, said Peter Haas.
Bangladesh has many advantages that potential investors would find attractive, he said, adding, “But as American business leaders tell me: multi-national firms have options on where they invest.”
He said those will choose whichever country has the lowest levels of corruption, the fewest bureaucratic obstacles, the greatest respect for rule of law, and the best logistics infrastructure for their business.
So, if Bangladesh can attract more investment only by assuring citizens and investors that corruption is less prevalent here than in other markets, he said.
The US Agency for International Development, USAID, has partnered with Bangladesh’s Registrar of Joint Stock Companies to launch an online registration process for new businesses. This makes registering new businesses more transparent, faster, and more affordable.
The USAID has also worked with the Bangladesh National Board of Revenue to establish Authorized Economic Operators. This has empowered the private sector, instead of the government, to release shipments at ports.
As a result, the process has become more transparent and raised the level of trust between the private sector and the government.
The US Department of Commerce’s Commercial Law Development Program (CLDP) works with the Private Public Partnership Authority Bangladesh to conduct workshops to improve the legal and business environment of Bangladesh.
The CLDP also works with Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC) to improve municipal governance by improving fiscal transparency. Under this program, the CLDP brought a DNCC delegation, including the mayor, to Miami in January.
The US Department of Justice trains investigators and attorneys in the Anti-Corruption Commission on such topics as how to investigate and prosecute money laundering, how to use electronic evidence, and how to investigate financial crimes.
It has also fostered a relationship between Bangladesh’s Financial Intelligence Unit and the International Anti-Corruption Coordination Centre.
The United States is committed to holding corrupt officials accountable for their actions. This can take various forms, said US Ambassador Peter Haas.
South Asian Index drops on the outgoing week
South Asian Stock Markets dropped last week. Among them, the biggest fall was in the stock markets of India and Pakistan.
A review of South Asian markets shows that India’s Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) index BSE Sensex has dropped 1,146 points during the week. At the end of the week, the index stood at 57,989 points. On the other hand, the Nifty-50 index of the country’s National Stock Exchange dropped by 312 points last week. At the end of the week, the index stood at 17,412 points.
Pakistan Stock Exchange Index ‘KSE 100’ lost 464 points last week. After a week of losing, the index settled at 41,329 points.
On the hand The Sri Lankan stock market hiked, the Colombo Stock Exchange index ‘ASPI’ gained 64 points in a week. After a week the index settled at 9,670 points.
Bhutan’s stock market index ‘BSI’ hiked by 21 point and the index stood at 1,104 points throughout the whole week. Nepal’s ‘NEPSE’ lost 69 points last week, as the index stands at 1,933 points.
BIDA, LABCCI signed MoU to boost trade and investment
LABCCi: The Latin America-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA) to boost trade and investment between Bangladesh and Latin America.
Bida Executive Chairman (Senior Secretary) Lokman Hossain Miah attended as the chief guest at the MoU signing ceremony held at the Bida office in the capital on Wednesday (15 March).
LABCCI President Md Anwar Shawkat Afser and Bida Marketing and Communication Executive Member (Additional Secretary) Md Matiur Rahman signed the MoU on behalf of their respective sides.
At the ceremony, the Brazilian Embassy in Dhaka Commercial Specialist Nahid Ferdousi assured that Brazil is very much interested in tying up with Bangladesh in all aspects.
Md Anwar Shawkat Afser said that a new era has been started by the MoU signing ceremony.
“LABCCI now got the affiliation from the Prime Minister’s Office of Bangladesh, Bida. Now business societies from Latin American countries may get more confidence to invest and trade in Bangladesh through the collaboration of LABCCI,” he said.
The LABCCI president highlighted the upcoming event “Bangladesh Investment B2B (Business to Business) Event in Latin America 2023” which will be jointly organised by Bida, DBCCI and LABCCI in the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Argentina and Brazil on 6-17 March 2023.
Representatives from the ministries of foreign affairs and commerce, Bida, Beza, Hi-Tech Park Authority and high-profile Bangladeshi and European businessmen will participate in the mega event.
Salman Fazlur Rahman, private industry and investment advisor to the prime minister, will lead the delegation in the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Argentina and Brazil.
Bida Executive Chairman Lokman Hossain Miah assured full support for this delegation, saying that the present government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina created a friendly environment for businessmen as EPZs will provide a safe zone for foreign investors in Bangladesh.
In the last 15 years, Bangladesh’s economy has changed dramatically. People’s incomes have increased and their lives have improved. By 2027, another 3.5 million people will enter the middle class, he added.
“Bangladesh is not only a huge domestic market of 17 crore people, but with proper investment, the consumer market of about 300 crores in South Asia including India and China can be accessed from here,” said the Bida executive chairman, adding that Bangladesh is one of the top safe investment destinations in the world.
He appreciated the LABCCI board of directors for their initiative to attract FDI from the Latin America region as well as from Europe.
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