Economy
Global Trade Faces Challenges Amid Regional Conflicts, Says WTO
The World Trade Organization announced on Wednesday that global trade is expected to rebound this year after experiencing an unexpected slump in 2023. However, it cautioned that regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and economic policy uncertainty could darken the outlook.
In its annual trade forecast, the WTO revealed that world trade volumes declined by 1.2 percent in 2023. This downgrade was primarily attributed to the underperformance of Europe, according to WTO chief economist Ralph Ossa. Lingering high energy prices and inflation led to decreased demand for manufactured goods, resulting in stagnation in the eurozone economy in the final quarter of the previous year, with Germany’s economy contracting by 0.3 percent.
Nevertheless, there is already a recovery in global trade of goods underway, partially due to inflation slowing down. The WTO forecasts modest global economic growth over the next two years, with an expected growth rate of 2.6 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2025. Merchandise trade volumes are projected to increase by 2.6 percent in 2024 and further expand by 3.3 percent in 2025. However, the 2024 forecast is lower than the 3.3-percent hike predicted by the WTO last October.
“We are making progress towards global trade recovery,” stated WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, emphasizing the importance of mitigating risks such as geopolitical strife and trade fragmentation.
The organization highlighted more positive developments in trade on the services side, which grew by nine percent last year. The WTO expects further growth this year, particularly in tourism and passenger transport associated with the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris and the European football championships.
The WTO anticipates that inflationary pressures that impacted trade last year will ease in 2024. This is expected to lead to real income growth, particularly in advanced economies, and subsequently boost the consumption of manufactured goods.
Despite signs of recovery, the WTO cautioned that geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty could limit the extent of the trade rebound. Disruptions in the Red Sea crisis and Suez Canal linked to the conflict in Gaza have already affected sectors such as automotive products, fertilizers, and retail.
While trade remains relatively resilient, the WTO has raised concerns about growing fragmentation and protectionist behavior in global trade. Bilateral trade between the United States and China reached record levels in 2022, but trade growth between the two countries was 30 percent lower than with other nations last year.
The organization has also warned about increasing protectionist tendencies among certain countries, without explicitly naming them. The WTO chief economist underscored the importance of upcoming elections worldwide, including pivotal ones like in the United States, which could significantly impact trade policies and contribute to trade policy uncertainty.
Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus on Thursday paid tribute to the Armed Forces Division by placing a floral wreath at its headquarters.
Prof Yunus, who visited the division as part of his official duties, laid the wreath to honor the sacrifices and dedication of the members of the Armed Forces.
Following the wreath-laying ceremony, he signed the visitor’s book.
Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Kazi Habibul Awal, along with four other election commissioners, announced their resignation during a press conference today at the Election Commission (EC) building. The resignation follows growing speculation and pressure.
CEC Awal stated, “In this changed situation, I and other commissioners have decided to step down. We’re handing over our resignation letters to the EC Secretary to send it to the President.” After submitting the letters, the CEC and some commissioners quickly left the premises, with no clear explanation for the absence of two election commissioners.
The resignations come amid increasing unrest tied to the registration of political parties such as Nagarik Oikya and Gono Odhikar Parishad. Sources revealed the CEC felt unsafe due to aggressive behavior from activists, prompting the decision to step down.
Protesters outside the EC building hurled shoes at vehicles carrying Election Commissioners Rashida Sultana, Md Alamgir, and Anisur Rahman as they left. Meanwhile, preparations for their exit had already been underway, with the commissioners reportedly relocating personal belongings from their offices.
The commission, appointed in February 2022 for a five-year term, had previously expressed confusion over demands for their resignation, maintaining they had conducted fair elections. However, internal discussions led to the collective decision to resign earlier than expected.
The government will now purchase LNG from the international spot market through open tender instead of negotiation.
Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) in a meeting on Wednesday in principle approved a proposal in this regard.
Adviser of the interim government for Finance Dr. Salehuddin Ahmed, who presided over the meeting, said that the government will procure LNG through open tender.
The Energy and Mineral Division of the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources placed the proposal where it sought approval to import LNG from 23 listed companies in the international spot market.
The adviser said that though such 23 companies were enlisted by the previous Awami League government and signed Master Sales and Purchase Agreement, they will remain unchanged.
He said that instead of applying the Speedy Increase of Energy and Power Supply (Special) Act 2010, the interim government will follow the Public Procurement Rules 2008 to ensure the competitive bidding process.
“We don’t want to change them as we wanted to import LNG quickly, ensuring proper competition among the suppliers,” he told reporters.
Committee also approved another proposal in principle to sign a contract to import urea fertiliser for the 2024-25 fiscal year from Fertiglobe Distribution Limited, UAE, on a G-to-G basis.
Meanwhile, the Cabinet Committee on Government Procurement (CCGP) in a meeting, presided over by the Adviser for Finance, approved 3 proposals for import of lentil and fertiliser.
As per the proposal, the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh will procure 10,000 metric tons (MT) of lentil from local firm Sahara Enterprise at a cost of Tk 98.20 crore with each kg priced at Tk 98.20.
The Commerce Ministry which moved the proposal on behalf of the TCB in the meeting mentioned in the proposal that the supplier firm was selected through open tender.
The CCGP approved two separate proposals of the Industries Ministry under which Bangladesh Chemical Industries Corporation will import 30,000 MT of bulk granular urea fertiliser from Fertiglobe Distribution Limited, UAE, under state to state contract at a cost of Tk 121.48 crore.
Each metric ton of fertiliser will cost $343.17.
Another 30,000 MT of bagged granular urea fertiliser will be procured from the local Karnaphuli Fertilizer Company Limited (Kafco) at a cost of Tk 116.99 crore with each metric ton costing $330.50.
