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Japan unexpectedly slips into recession, Germany now world’s third-biggest economy

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Japan unexpectedly slipped into a recession at the end of last year, losing its title as the world’s third-biggest economy to Germany and raising doubts about when the central bank would begin to exit its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy.

Some analysts are warning of another contraction in the current quarter as weak demand in China, sluggish consumption and production halts at a unit of Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T), opens new tab all point to a challenging path to an economic recovery.

“What’s particularly striking is the sluggishness in consumption and capital expenditure that are key pillars of domestic demand,” said Yoshiki Shinke, senior executive economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“The economy will continue to lack momentum for the time being with no key drivers of growth.”

Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell an annualised 0.4% in the October-December period after a 3.3% slump in the previous quarter, government data showed on Thursday, confounding market forecasts for a 1.4% increase.

Two consecutive quarters of contraction are typically considered the definition of a technical recession.

While many analysts still expect the Bank of Japan to phase out its massive monetary stimulus this year, the weak data may cast doubt on its forecast that rising wages will underpin consumption and keep inflation durably around its 2% target.

“Two consecutive declines in GDP and three consecutive declines in domestic demand are bad news, even if revisions may change the final numbers at the margin,” said Stephan Angrick, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“This makes it harder for the central bank to justify a rate hike, let alone a series of hikes.”

Economy minister Yoshitaka Shindo stressed the need to achieve solid wage growth to underpin consumption, which he described as “lacking momentum” due to rising prices.

“Our understanding is that the BOJ looks comprehensively at various data, including consumption, and risks to the economy in guiding monetary policy,” he told a news conference after the data’s release, when asked about the impact on BOJ policy.

The yen was steady following the release of the data and last stood at 150.22 per dollar, pinned near a three-month low hit earlier in the week.

The Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab rose 0.8%, reversing some of its losses made from the previous session, possibly on expectations the BOJ may continue with its massive easing programme for longer than expected.

On a quarterly basis, GDP slid 0.1% against median forecasts of a 0.3% gain, and compared with a 0.8% contraction in the previous quarter.

CONSUMPTION, CAPEX WEAK

Private consumption, which makes up more than half of economic activity, fell 0.2%, weaker than a market forecast for a 0.1% gain, as rising living costs and warm weather discouraged households from dining out and buying winter clothes.

Capital expenditure, another key private-sector growth engine, fell 0.1%, compared with forecasts of a 0.3% gain, as supply constraints delayed construction projects.

External demand, or exports minus imports, contributed 0.2 percentage point to GDP as exports rose 2.6% from the previous quarter, the data showed.

The BOJ has been laying the groundwork to end negative rates by April and overhaul other parts of its ultra-loose monetary framework, but is likely to go slow on any subsequent policy tightening amid lingering risks, sources have told Reuters.

While BOJ officials have not offered clues on when exactly they could end negative rates, many market players expect such an action to happen either in March or April. A Reuters poll taken in January showed April as the top choice among economists for the negative rate policy to be abandoned.

Some analysts say Japan’s tight labour market and robust corporate spending plans are keeping alive the chance of an early exit from ultra-loose policy.

“While the second consecutive contraction in GDP in Q4 would suggest that Japan’s economy is now in recession, business surveys and the labour market tell a different story. Either way, growth is set to remain sluggish this year as the household savings rate has turned negative,” said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics.

“The (BOJ) has been arguing that private consumption has ‘continued to increase moderately’ and we suspect that it will continue to strike an optimistic tone at its upcoming meeting in March,” Thieliant said, sticking to his projection the bank will end its negative interest rate policy in April.

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With Biden out, Trump and Harris exchange barbs in reset US presidential race

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President Joe Biden on Wednesday addressed the nation for the first time since dropping his reelection bid, saying he decided to forgo personal ambition to save democracy in a sedate Oval Office speech that contrasted with the rough-and-tumble campaign.

Shortly before his speech, Republican Donald Trump laid into Democratic rival Kamala Harris in his first rally since she replaced Biden atop the ticket, signalling a bare-knuckled campaign ahead of the Nov. 5 election.

Trump branded Harris a “radical left lunatic” after she had dominated the campaign the two previous days with withering attacks on Trump that pointedly raised his felony convictions, his liability for sexual abuse, and fraud judgments against his business, charitable foundation and private university.

Biden said he believed he deserved to be reelected based on his record during his first term, but his love of country led him to step aside.

“I decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation. That is the best way to unite our nation,” Biden said, after previously resisting calls from within the party that he quit the race following his poor showing in a June 27 debate with Trump.

Biden, at 81 the oldest president in U.S. history, was greeted by cheers, applause and music in the Rose Garden after the address, as his staff had converged on the White House for a viewing party.

Trump was less kind, saying in a post on his Truth Social platform that Biden’s speech was “barely understandable and sooo bad!”

After spending much of the campaign attacking Biden as old and feeble, Trump, 78, now faces a younger candidate in Harris, 59, the first Black woman and Asian American to serve as vice president.

Energising many Democrats as potentially the first woman to take the White House, Harris quickly consolidated the party behind her, as her campaign said it had raised $126 million since Sunday, with 64% of donors making their first contribution of the 2024 campaign.

With nobody stepping up to challenge her for the nomination, she won the backing of party delegates on Monday, a day after Biden’s announcement.

The next highly anticipated development will be Harris’ choice of a vice presidential candidate to counter Trump’s selection of Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. Among the names being mentioned are Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

The Democratic National Committee’s rules committee agreed on Wednesday on a plan to formally nominate Harris as soon as Aug. 1 – before the party’s Aug. 19-22 convention in Chicago – with Harris picking a running mate by Aug. 7.

Biden praised Harris as a strong leader who would make an effective president.

“She’s experienced, she’s tough, she’s capable. She’s been an incredible partner to me and a leader for our country. Now the choice is up to you the American people,” he said.

Trump tried to quash some of her momentum in an aggressive speech at a campaign rally.

“I’m not gonna be nice!” he told his cheering supporters in Charlotte, North Carolina, a battleground state where voting preferences can swing to either side.

Harris on Tuesday showed her willingness to throw a punch, contrasting her background as a prosecutor to his record as a convicted felon.

“Do we want to live in a country of freedom, compassion and rule of law, or a country of chaos, fear and hate?,” she asked during the speech in Milwaukee.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Tuesday showed Harris with a two-percentage-point lead over Trump, 44% to 42%. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS showed Trump leading Harris, 49% to 46%. Both findings were within the polls’ margins of error.

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Trump shot in right ear at rally, shooter dead

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Donald Trump was shot in the right ear during a campaign rally on Saturday, sparking panic in the crowd and spattering the Republican presidential candidate’s blood across his face, before he emerged and pumped his fist in the air appearing to mouth the words “Fight! Fight! Fight!”

The shooter was dead, one rally attendee was killed and two other spectators were injured, the Secret Service said in a statement.

“I was shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform. “Much bleeding took place.”

As the shots rang out, Trump grabbed his right ear with his right hand, then brought his hand down to look at it before dropping to his knees behind the podium before Secret Service agents swarmed and covered him. He emerged about a minute later, his red “Make America Great Again” hat knocked off and could be heard saying “wait, wait,” before agents ushered him into a waiting vehicle.

The Secret Service and the former president’s campaign said Trump was safe following the shooting in Butler, Pennsylvania, about 30 miles (50 km) north of Pittsburgh.

The shooter’s identity and motive were not immediately clear. Leading Republicans and Democrats quickly condemned the violence.

The shots appeared to come from outside the area secured by the Secret Service, the agency said.

An audience member was also dead, and another person was in critical condition, a Washington Post reporter said on social media, citing the Butler County district attorney.

The shooting occurred less than four months before the Nov. 5 election, when Trump faces an election rematch with Democratic President Joe Biden.

“President Trump thanks law enforcement and first responders for their quick action during this heinous act. He is fine and is being checked out at a local medical facility. More details will follow,” spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement.

Trump had just started his speech when gunshots erupted and Trump and other rally attendees hit the deck. Secret Service agents swarmed around him and Trump disappeared behind the podium for about one minute before he was rushed to the waiting vehicle.

Trump and Biden are locked in a close election rematch, with most opinion polls including those by Reuters/Ipsos showing the two evenly matched.

Biden said in a statement: “There’s no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it.”

Ron Moose, a Trump supporter who was in the crowd, described the chaos: “I heard about four shots and I saw the crowd go down and then Trump ducked also real quick. Then the Secret Service all jumped and protected him as soon as they could. We are talking within a second they were all protecting him.”

Moose said he then saw a man running and being chased by officers in military uniforms. He said he heard additional shots, but was unsure who fired them. He noted that by then snipers had set up on the roof of a warehouse behind the stage.

The BBC interviewed a man who described himself as an eyewitness, saying he saw a man armed with a rifle crawling up a roof near the event. The person, who the BBC did not identify, said he and the people he was with started pointing at the man, trying to alert security.

“I am thinking to myself, why is Trump still speaking. Why have they not pulled him off stage,” said the man, who was wearing a red Trump hat. “Next thing you know, five shots rang out.”

REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS DECRY VIOLENCE

Trump is due to receive his party’s formal nomination at the Republican National Convention, which kicks off in Milwaukee on Monday.

“This horrific act of political violence at a peaceful campaign rally has no place in this country and should be unanimously and forcefully condemned,” Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson said on social media.

Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he was horrified by what happened and was relieved Trump was safe. “Political violence has no place in our country,” he said.

A Secret Service spokesperson said on social media: “The Secret Service has implemented protective measures and the former president is safe … This is now an active Secret Service investigation and further information will be released when available.”

CNN reported that Trump was injured, but gave no other details. It was not clear how or what injuries he may have sustained.

The venue was abandoned with chairs knocked over and yellow police tape around the stage. A helicopter flew above and law enforcement officers walked through the area, the video feed showed. Armed law enforcement officers were also seen on a roof near the stage where Trump was standing.

Biden’s campaign was working to pause its television ads and halting all other outbound communication, a campaign official said on Saturday.

Trump, who served as president from 2017-2021, easily bested his rivals for the Republican nomination early in the campaign and has largely unified around him the party that had briefly wavered in support after his supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, attempting to overturn his 2020 election defeat.

The businessman and former reality television star entered the year facing a raft of legal worries, including four separate criminal prosecutions. He was found guilty in late May of trying to cover up hush money payments to a porn star, but the other three prosecutions he faces — including two for his attempts to overturn his defeat — have been ground to a halt by various factors including a Supreme Court decision early this month that found him to be partly immune to prosecution.

Biden spoke to Trump after rally shooting: White House

US President Joe Biden has spoken to his election rival Donald Trump, a White House official said, after the Republican was injured in an apparent assassination attempt at a campaign event in Pennsylvania.

“This evening, President Biden spoke to former President Trump,” the official said, adding that the US incumbent would receive an updated briefing from law enforcement officials on the incident on Sunday morning.

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Asian markets track Wall St records after Powell hints at rate cut

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Asian stocks on Thursday tagged along with a Wall Street rally that saw another round of record highs as bets on a September interest rate hike surged following comments by Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell.

The advances also saw Hong Kong and Shanghai push higher after struggling in recent weeks over worries about the Chinese economy, with investors awaiting a key Communist Party meeting next week.

On a second day of testimony to lawmakers, Powell said decision-makers would not wait until inflation had hit the bank’s two percent target before loosening monetary policy, adding: “If you waited that long, you’ve probably waited too long.”

His remarks came before the release of the latest consumer price index reading on Thursday, which is expected to show a further slowdown.

Traders ramped up bets on the Fed reducing borrowing costs in two months’ time, with analysts saying Powell was telegraphing to markets that the decision had been made.
The comments soothed recent fears among investors that officials might keep rates at their two-decade high for some time owing to a still strong labour market and inflation staying stubbornly above two percent.

The S&P 500 ended with a sixth straight record, while the Nasdaq also finished at an all-time peak.

And the upbeat mood filtered through to Asia, where Hong Kong jumped more than one percent, while Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei, Manila and Wellington also rose.

Eyes are also turning to the start of China’s Third Plenum gathering on Monday, where top officials including President Xi Jinping are expected to discuss ways to kickstart the world’s number two economy in the face of an ongoing property crisis and geopolitical issues.

However, while there is hope for some sort of major policy announcement, commentators remain cautious.

Andrew Batson, of Beijing-based consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics, told AFP he did not expect a “fundamental departure from the course Xi has already laid out”, in which technological self-sufficiency and national security outweigh economic growth.

Nomura’s Ting Lu added that the meeting was “intended to generate and discuss big, long-term ideas and structural reforms instead of making short-term policy adjustments”.

Economic growth in the first quarter of the year came in above forecasts and is tipped to top the government’s five percent goal for April-June, but the meeting comes amid ongoing concerns that officials are not providing enough support.

Taylor Nugent at National Australia Bank warned: “Further monetary policy easing is constrained by a reluctance to allow further depreciation in the renminbi, and expectations are low for any big policy shift at the Third Plenum.”

– Key figures around 0230 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.8 percent at 42,179.84 (break)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.3 percent at 17,697.76

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.8 percent at 2,962.89

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0840 from $1.0833 on Wednesday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2862 from $1.2848

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 161.58 yen from 161.71 yen

Euro/pound: DOWN at 84.27 pence from 84.29 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.8 percent at $82.79 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.9 percent at $85.81 per barrel

New York – Dow: UP 1.1 percent at 39,721.36 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.7 percent at 8,193.51 (close)

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