Economy
Oil rises 4% on supply cut threats, still set for weekly drops
Oil prices rose about 4% on Friday, upheld by real and threatened cuts to supply, despite futures posting a second weekly decline as aggressive interest rate hikes and China’s Covid-19 curbs weighed on the demand outlook.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to stop oil and gas exports to Europe if price caps are imposed and a small cut to OPEC+ oil output plans announced this week also supported prices.
Brent crude rose $3.69, or 4.1%, to settle at $92.84 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $3.25, or 3.9% to settle at $86.79 a barrel.
“Throughout the next few months, the West will have to contend with the risk of losing Russian energy supplies and oil prices soaring,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.
Pressured by worries about a recession and demand, Brent is down sharply from a surge in March close to its all-time high of $147 after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The Group of Seven is trying to find ways to limit Russia’s lucrative oil export revenue in the wake of the invasion. A price cap that G7 countries want to impose on Russian oil to punish Moscow should be set at a fair market value minus any risk premium resulting from its invasion of Ukraine, a US Treasury Department official told reporters on Friday.
Despite Friday’s bounce, both crude benchmarks were headed for a weekly drop, with Brent down about 0.2% on the week after at one point hitting its lowest since January. WTI posted a weekly decline of 0.1%.
If the US Federal Reserve is able to keep the unemployment rate below 5%, it can be aggressive in bringing down inflation but after that trade-offs will appear, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday.
The Fed should be aggressive with rate hikes while the economy “can take a punch,” he said.
A US Department Of Energy official said the White House was not considering new releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) at this time beyond the 180 million barrels that President Joe Biden announced months ago.
“The White House is backing off another release from the SPR,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. “Looks like a lot of the fears the market had previously have gone away.”
US oil rigs fell five to 591 this week, their lowest since mid-June, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said, as the growth in the rig count and production has slowed despite relatively high energy prices.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s unprecedented rate hike of 75 basis points this week and more Covid-19 lockdowns in China have weighed on prices.
The city of Chengdu extended a lockdown for most of its more than 21 million residents on Thursday while millions more in other parts of China were told to shun travel during upcoming holidays.
Money managers cut their net long US crude futures and options positions by 3,274 contracts to 165,158 in the week to September 6, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
In November, the overall point-to-point inflation rate in the country exhibited a marginal decline to 9.49 percent, attributed primarily to decreases in both food and non-food inflation.
The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) reported a general inflation rate of 9.93 percent in October. Specifically, food inflation decreased to 10.76 percent in November from 12.56 percent in October, while non-food inflation saw a slight dip to 8.16 percent from the 8.30 percent recorded in the previous month.
Breaking down the data, the rural areas experienced a slight decrease in the overall inflation rate to 9.62 percent in November, down from 9.99 percent in October. Similarly, urban areas witnessed a decline in the general inflation rate to 9.16 percent in November, compared to 9.72 percent in October.
The national wage index rate for November increased to 7.72 percent, showing a slight uptick from the 7.69 percent reported in October.
Export earnings for the current fiscal year (FY24) from July to November reached $22,232.28 million, marking a 1.30 percent growth compared to the same period last year, according to the latest data from the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB).
In the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year (FY23), export earnings amounted to $21,946.07 million. However, there was a notable decline in single-month export earnings for November, witnessing a 6.05 percent fall, reaching $4,784.81 million, as opposed to $5,092.56 million in November of the previous year.
The Ready-Made Garments (RMG) sector remained the primary contributor to export earnings during July-November, securing $18,835.65 million. Within this category, knitwear exports accounted for $10,989.42 million, followed by woven garments at $7,846.23 million.
Notable performances in other exportable categories during the July-November period include primary commodities at $601.42 million, agriculture products at $420.59 million, manufactured commodities at $21,630.86 million, plastic products at $92.60 million, leather and leather products at $427.02 million, jute and jute goods at $361.91 million, and specialized technologies [remaining text not provided].
The Foreign Minister, in a meeting today with the outgoing Kosovo ambassador Güner Ureya, urged Kosovo to recruit skilled human resources and consider importing high-quality readymade garments and pharmaceuticals from Bangladesh. The ambassador paid a farewell call on the Foreign Minister at the foreign ministry this afternoon.
During the meeting, the Foreign Minister commended the ambassador for actively advancing bilateral relations and emphasized the importance of enhancing people-to-people contact for stronger mutual relations. The outgoing envoy, in turn, expressed appreciation for Bangladesh’s progress and development across various sectors. Additionally, the envoy briefed the Foreign Minister on the shared interest of business communities in both Bangladesh and Kosovo to boost trade and investment between the two countries.
Discussions also encompassed topics such as women empowerment and the necessity of peace for sustainable development. The outgoing envoy lauded the people, culture, and the beauty of Bangladesh.
