Economy
Asia stocks rally, USD restrained before inflation test looms
Asian share markets rallied on Monday on hopes a key reading on U.S. inflation will show some cooling, while the U.S. dollar was limited by the risk of higher European interest rates and Japanese intercession.
Holidays in China and South Korea made for slow trading, while brokers were unsure what implications Ukraine’s surprising success against Russian powers could have.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.5%, having bounced modestly from a two-year low hit last week. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) added another 1.1%, after rallying 2% last week.
Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) firmed 1.3% ahead of retail and industry data due later in the week that may show some improvement in August after a disappointing July.
Wall Street struggled to extend Friday’s bounce with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures flat. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.6% and FTSE futures 0.2%.
Bulls are hoping Tuesday’s reading on U.S. customer costs will hint at a peak for inflation as falling petrol prices are seen pulling down the headline index by 0.1%.
The core is figure to rise 0.3%, though some analysts see a chance of a softer report.
“Arguably, with the economy having contracted through the first half, and household discretionary spending capacity under significant pressure, we are due a modest downside surprise,” said economists at Westpac.
“As such, we forecast +0.2% for core and -0.2% for headline,” they added. “If achieved though, it should not be assumed that October and beyond will see repeats, with volatility likely to persist.”
A delicate number might revive speculation the Federal Reserve will only hike by 50 basis points this month, though it would likely have to be very weak to have a real impact given how stridently hawkish policymakers have been as of late.
The market at present implies an 88% chance the Fed will hike by 75 basis points.
BofA global economist Ethan Harris fears that by focusing on actual inflation to determine when to stop, central banks may go too far. The bank has lifted its target for the federal funds rate to a range of 4.0-4.25%, with a 75bp hike in September and smaller rises thereafter.
“For investors, this means more pressure on interest rates, more weakness in risk assets and further upside for the super-strong dollar,” said Harris.
“In our view, these trends only turn when markets price the full fury of central bank hikes and we are not quite there yet.”
For now, the dollar has run into some profit taking from a market that is very long the currency after a month of sustained gains.
So rapidly has the dollar risen on the yen that Japanese authorities are becoming increasingly vocal in protesting their currency’s decline, sparking speculation of intervention and putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to moderate its policy of yield curve control.
Japan’s government must take steps as needed to counter excessive declines in the yen, a senior government official said on Sunday, after it hit its weakest level against the dollar in 24 years.
Yet after an early dip, the dollar soon rallied to be up 0.4% at 143.14 yen, though still off last week’s top of 144.99.
The dollar index stood at 108.770, having reached as high as 110.790 last week.
The euro nudged up 0.4% to $1.0080, and away from its recent trough of $0.9865.
Analysts at ANZ noted the dollar over the past month was up roughly 9% against the euro and the Chinese yuan, 12% against the British pound and 19% against the yen.
“The rampant USD is causing strain in developing countries, which are finding imports priced in USD more expensive,” they said in a note.
“With Fed speakers using every opportunity to hammer home a hawkish message and quantitative tightening looming, the USD is not about to dramatically turn.”
The ascent of the dollar combined with high bond yields has been a drag for gold, which was hovering at $1,713 an ounce after hitting a low of $1,690 last week.
Oil prices have also been trending lower amid concerns about a global economic slowdown, though cuts to supply did prompt a 4% bounce on Friday.
On Monday, Brent was down $1.29 at $91.55, while U.S. crude shed $1.28 to $85.51 per barrel.
The International Monetary Fund has finally given Bangladesh the green signal for $681 million as the third instalment of the lender’s $4.7 billion loan package.
The visiting delegation of the lender has confirmed that the instalment will be released in June, several top finance ministry officials told the news reporter following a meeting with the IMF team yesterday.
They said various aspects of an agreement for securing the third instalment were finalised in a series of meetings with the IMF and different wings of the finance ministry yesterday.
The lender is likely to reduce the requirement for June’s net foreign exchange reserve from $20.10 billion to $17-$18 billion, they added.
The IMF had a condition for Bangladesh to have reserves of $19.26 billion by March-end and $20.10 billion by June’s end for the third instalment.
An official from the finance division told the news reporter that despite current reserves now around $15 billion, receiving the third instalment is assured even if this condition is not met.
Bangladesh and the IMF do not have much disagreement on most issues, said the official, adding that the government is working to implement the conditions imposed by the IMF including reducing subsidies, increasing revenue and reserves.
He said a new reserves requirement will be finalised in a meeting with the central bank on Tuesday. The IMF will also determine the net reserve target for October and December for the fourth instalment.
Bangladesh also failed to meet the net reserve requirement and revenue target before receiving the second instalment. Back then, the IMF signed the MoU by reducing the targets for next March and June.
Another official said the government also has doubts about achieving the lender’s condition for revenue target for June.
“Therefore, the finance ministry has also sought concessions from the IMF’s targets for June revenue collection. In the new MoU, the IMF is also likely to make concessions in this regard,” said the official.
The government has collected Tk1,62,164 crore against the revised target of Tk1,43,640 crore till last December, according to the finance ministry. However, revenue of Tk3,94,530 crore has to be collected at the end of the financial year.
Assessing revenue collection growth over the current fiscal year’s nine months, the revenue board predicts falling short of the target by at least Tk10,000 crore by June’s end.
Govt actively following IMF’s directives
Ahsan H Mansur, executive director of the Policy Research Institute, told the news reporter that the IMF’s current focus includes transitioning to a market-based exchange rate, leaving interest rates to the market, enhancing revenue collection, and reducing government subsidies.
He said the government is actively aligning policies with the IMF’s directives.
“The IMF may reduce the June net reserve requirement from $20.10 billion to $17-$18 billion. But it will be difficult to achieve before June,” said the economist.
Ramifications of not meeting conditions
Mahbub Ahmed, former senior secretary of the Finance Division, told the new reporter that the government is working to meet IMF conditions to secure the third loan instalment.
He said, “Despite not meeting conditions on foreign exchange reserves or revenue, we remain optimistic about receiving the third tranche.”
He said failing to meet the conditions satisfactorily may hinder receiving the two instalments scheduled for the next fiscal year.
“As the government has until the next fiscal year to fulfil the conditions, the IMF may get strict for the next instalments,” said the former secretary.
He further mentioned that Bangladesh has never received the last instalment of the IMF loan except once due to not being able to fulfil the conditions.
“In 2016, when I was finance secretary, I received the last instalment of the IMF’s $1 billion loan. Before this, Bangladesh could never take the final instalment of the loan,” he added.
Meeting with BB today
The IMF officials will meet with central bank officials on Tuesday morning to adjust banking sector conditions for securing the third and fourth loan instalments.
Later in the day, they will finalise the MoU with State Minister for Finance Waseqa Ayesha Khan and Finance Division Secretary Khairuzzaman Mozumder, attaching the revised terms for releasing the instalments.
The delegation, led by Chris Papageorgiou, head of IMF’s Development Macroeconomics Division, will leave Dhaka after a press briefing on 8 May. The team arrived on 24 April to review the loan programme.
In January last year, Bangladesh signed a $4.7 billion loan agreement with the IMF due to dwindling foreign exchange reserves. The loan is being distributed in seven instalments by 2026. The lender cleared $447.8 million of the first instalment in February last year, and $681 million of the second instalment in December
Bangladesh and Egypt have affirmed their commitment to enhancing bilateral cooperation through regular foreign office consultations.
During a meeting between Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Hassan Shoukry on Saturday afternoon, held on the sidelines of the 15th Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Summit in Gambia, discussions were held on various matters of mutual interest. These included boosting trade and investment between the two nations and addressing the Rohingya crisis.
Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud proposed mutual visa exemption and expanding trade with Egypt during the meeting. The Egyptian foreign minister agreed in principle to sign an agreement on diplomatic and official visa exemption.
Additionally, the Egyptian foreign minister pledged full support for the construction of the Chancery building of the Bangladesh mission in Egypt.
Following this, Deemah Al Yahya, Secretary General of the Digital Cooperation Organization (DCO), paid a courtesy call to Foreign Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud.
During the meeting, Al Yahya informed the Foreign Minister about the drafting of an agreement titled ‘Multilateral AI Agreement’ on the International Use of Artificial Intelligence by the member states of DCO.
Expressing sincere interest, Al Yahya accepted the invitation from the Foreign Minister to visit Bangladesh and witness the country’s progress in the field of information and communication technology. He expressed hope for expanding DCO’s cooperation with Bangladesh in this sector through the visit.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina today (25 April) called for speaking out against all forms of aggression and atrocities, and say ‘no’ to wars.
“We must speak out against all forms of aggression and atrocities, and say ‘no’ to wars,” she said adding that Bangladesh supports the UN Secretary General’s ‘New Agenda for Peace.
The prime minister was addressing the 80th Session of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) held at the ESCAP Hall (2nd floor), United Nations Conference Center (UNCC) here.
She arrived in Bangkok on Wednesday on a six-day official visit to Thailand.
The PM said the pre-condition for sustainable development is lasting peace and security.
“We must settle regional disputes and tension through dialogue. Our mutual respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity must remain paramount,” she said.
Hasina called upon the Asia-Pacific region, especially ASEAN, to redouble their efforts to end Rohingya crisis as all efforts at regional connectivity, integration, and prosperity will continue to be marked by a missing puzzle without it.
“The origin of their crisis has been in Myanmar, and its solution also lies in Myanmar,” she declared.
“As long as that solution remains out of reach, all our efforts at regional connectivity, integration, and prosperity will continue to be marked by a missing puzzle. Let us redouble our efforts to put that puzzle back in place,” she said.
She said that in August 2017, when thousands of Rohingya men, women, and children from Myanmar fled to Bangladesh, Bangladesh offered them temporary shelter.
“With an ever growing population, this has now become one of the largest humanitarian situations in the world,” she said.
Sheikh Hasina said that In the backdrop of ongoing armed conflicts in Myanmar, the Rohingya repatriation process is also getting delayed.
“This is creating serious security risks within and beyond our territories,” she said.
She called upon the Asia-Pacific region, especially ASEAN, to play a proactive role in resolving the volatile situation in Myanmar.
“We must ensure that the Rohingya can go back home in safety and dignity at the earliest possible,” she said.
The prime minister said that the Asia-Pacific region must stand united against its common enemies of poverty and hunger.
She said Bangladesh has reduced poverty from 41.51 percent to 18.7 percent between 2006 and 2022.
It also reduced extreme poverty from 25.1 to 5.6 percent during the same period.
“We remain confident about eradicating extreme poverty by 2030,” she said.
She mentioned that Bangladesh has made notable progress on food security, with focused interventions on maternal and child nutrition.
“Our current priority is to address inequalities through income distribution, asset ownership, and social protection,” she said.
The prime minister said that Asia-Pacific region must put up a united front in tackling the climate crisis, biodiversity loss, and transboundary pollution.
“We need to push for ambitious climate financing goals beyond 2025 at COP-29. We need to cooperate on cross-border water management and air quality improvement. We must all prepare for growing extreme weather events,” she said.
In this connection, she suggested looking into Bangladesh’s experience in disaster risk reduction.
“We appreciate UN-ESCAP’s support in improving our early warning capabilities,” she added.
Briefly describing various development programmes and achievements of her govebrment, the prime minister said that much of the development gains are affected by climate impacts.
“As a low-lying delta, Bangladesh has no option but to invest heavily in climate resilience,” she said.
She mentioned that Bangladesh is already recognised as a global leader in climate adaptation.
“We are happy to share our traditional and innovative solutions with other vulnerable countries,” she said.
She said that Bangladesh has urged developed and emerging economies in the region to raise their time-bound emission reduction targets.
“For economies in transition, it is important to have a just energy transition.”
In Bangladesh, she said, “we are working on long-term energy security with a sound mix of clean and renewable energy.”
“We shall continue to do our part in pursuing a circular and low-carbon economic growth pathway.”
She underscored the need for increased and easy access to financing and technology from both the public and private sectors.
“I invite UN-ESCAP to help build the capacity of climate-vulnerable countries to mobilise adequate international climate financing.”
PM Hasina said that Bangladesh now provides critical links to the Trans-Asian Highway and Railway networks.
“Our physical and digital infrastructures are being developed to foster regional trade and connectivity.”
She said Bangladesh offers access to the Bay of Bengal for land-locked territories in its neighbourhood.
“We stand ready to work together with all regional partners through mutual understanding and cooperation,” said the prime minister.
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