In a surprising turn of events, Mohamed Muiz, the opposition candidate, emerged victorious in the Maldives presidential runoff held on Saturday, securing over 53% of the vote, as reported by local media. This election had taken on the character of a virtual referendum, determining whether India or China would exert greater influence over this Indian Ocean archipelago nation.

According to Mihaaru News, incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih garnered 46% of the vote, while Muiz clinched victory with a lead of more than 18,000 votes. Official results were expected to be announced on Sunday.

Following his win, Muiz expressed his commitment to shaping the country’s future and safeguarding the freedom of the Maldives. He called for unity, stating, “It’s time we put our differences aside and come together. We need to be a peaceful society.” Additionally, he requested that President Solih transfer former President Abdulla Yameen from prison to house arrest.

Muiz’s triumph was an unexpected one, considering he entered the race as an underdog and was named as a candidate closer to the nomination deadline, following the Supreme Court’s decision to bar Yameen from running due to his imprisonment on money laundering and corruption charges—charges that Yameen’s supporters claim are politically motivated.

“This result reflects the patriotism of our people and calls on all our neighbors and bilateral partners to fully respect our independence and sovereignty,” said Mohamed Shareef, a prominent official from Muiz’s party. He emphasized that it was also a mandate for Muiz to revive the economy and secure Yameen’s release.

Neither Muiz nor Solih managed to secure more than 50% of the vote in the initial round of voting held earlier in September.

During the campaign, Solih faced allegations from Muiz that he had permitted unchecked Indian presence in the Maldives. Muiz’s party, the People’s National Congress, is perceived as being strongly pro-China. Solih, however, maintained that the Indian military’s presence in the Maldives was solely for the construction of a dockyard under a government agreement and that it did not compromise the country’s sovereignty.

Muiz pledged that if elected president, he would remove Indian troops from the Maldives and work to rebalance the country’s trade relations, which he argued were heavily skewed in favor of India.

Ahmed Shaheed, a former foreign minister of the Maldives, suggested that the election results reflected public discontent with the government’s failure to meet economic and governance expectations rather than concerns about Indian influence. He stated, “I don’t think India was at all in the people’s minds.”

Muiz, an engineer by profession, previously served as the housing minister for seven years and was the mayor of Male, the capital, before being chosen as the presidential candidate.

In the lead-up to the election, Solih faced a setback when Mohamed Nasheed, a charismatic former president, broke away from the Maldivian Democratic Party and fielded his own candidate in the first round. Nasheed opted to remain neutral in the second round.

Abdulla Yameen, leader of the People’s National Congress, had aligned the Maldives with China’s Belt and Road initiative during his presidency from 2013 to 2018. This initiative aims to develop infrastructure projects, including railroads, ports, and highways, to expand trade and China’s influence across Asia, Africa, and Europe.

Despite the campaign rhetoric, it is unlikely that Muiz will drastically alter the foreign policy stance of the Maldives. Instead, opposition to Chinese projects may diminish, potentially rebalancing the power dynamics in the region.

The Maldives, comprising 1,200 coral islands in the Indian Ocean strategically located along major shipping routes between the East and the West, has seen significant political stability and economic growth in recent years. However, differing views on foreign influence continue to shape the nation’s political landscape.

With over 282,000 eligible voters and a turnout of 78% an hour before polling stations closed, this election marks a pivotal moment in the Maldives’ political history.