Economy
Global Trade Faces Challenges Amid Regional Conflicts, Says WTO
The World Trade Organization announced on Wednesday that global trade is expected to rebound this year after experiencing an unexpected slump in 2023. However, it cautioned that regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and economic policy uncertainty could darken the outlook.
In its annual trade forecast, the WTO revealed that world trade volumes declined by 1.2 percent in 2023. This downgrade was primarily attributed to the underperformance of Europe, according to WTO chief economist Ralph Ossa. Lingering high energy prices and inflation led to decreased demand for manufactured goods, resulting in stagnation in the eurozone economy in the final quarter of the previous year, with Germany’s economy contracting by 0.3 percent.
Nevertheless, there is already a recovery in global trade of goods underway, partially due to inflation slowing down. The WTO forecasts modest global economic growth over the next two years, with an expected growth rate of 2.6 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2025. Merchandise trade volumes are projected to increase by 2.6 percent in 2024 and further expand by 3.3 percent in 2025. However, the 2024 forecast is lower than the 3.3-percent hike predicted by the WTO last October.
“We are making progress towards global trade recovery,” stated WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, emphasizing the importance of mitigating risks such as geopolitical strife and trade fragmentation.
The organization highlighted more positive developments in trade on the services side, which grew by nine percent last year. The WTO expects further growth this year, particularly in tourism and passenger transport associated with the upcoming Olympic Games in Paris and the European football championships.
The WTO anticipates that inflationary pressures that impacted trade last year will ease in 2024. This is expected to lead to real income growth, particularly in advanced economies, and subsequently boost the consumption of manufactured goods.
Despite signs of recovery, the WTO cautioned that geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty could limit the extent of the trade rebound. Disruptions in the Red Sea crisis and Suez Canal linked to the conflict in Gaza have already affected sectors such as automotive products, fertilizers, and retail.
While trade remains relatively resilient, the WTO has raised concerns about growing fragmentation and protectionist behavior in global trade. Bilateral trade between the United States and China reached record levels in 2022, but trade growth between the two countries was 30 percent lower than with other nations last year.
The organization has also warned about increasing protectionist tendencies among certain countries, without explicitly naming them. The WTO chief economist underscored the importance of upcoming elections worldwide, including pivotal ones like in the United States, which could significantly impact trade policies and contribute to trade policy uncertainty.
Expatriate Bangladeshis sent approximately US$ 2.11 billion in remittances during the first 28 days of September in the fiscal year 2024-25, according to data released by Bangladesh Bank on 29 September.
Of this total, state-owned and specialised banks handled $679.10 million, while private banks received $1.43 billion in remittances.
Chief Adviser to Bangladesh’s interim government, Professor Muhammad Yunus, has vowed to expedite reforms and hold elections swiftly. Yunus, who recently assumed the role after the collapse of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year administration, expressed his commitment during an interview with Tokyo-based news outlet NHK WORLD in New York on Sunday. He was attending the United Nations General Assembly at the time.
Following mass student-led protests that ended Hasina’s long-standing rule in August, Yunus stepped in as the leader of the caretaker government. Known for founding Grameen Bank, an institution providing microloans to the underprivileged, Yunus, along with the bank, earned the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for his efforts in poverty alleviation.
During the interview, Yunus emphasized that the interim government’s primary mission is to implement reforms promptly and ensure elections are held as soon as the groundwork is complete. He underscored the importance of success, stating, “Failure is not something that we can accept.”
Addressing the pivotal role of students in the ousting of the Hasina administration, Yunus acknowledged the sacrifices made by young people, referring to their involvement as part of a “revolution.” He highlighted his intention to engage the younger generation in shaping policy.
Furthermore, Yunus called for continued support from Japan, Bangladesh’s largest donor, during this crucial transition period. He stressed that Japan’s assistance is vital to stabilizing Bangladesh’s economy and fostering a democratic foundation in the nation.
Syeda Rizwana Hasan, the Adviser for Environment, Forests, and Climate Change, announced today that steps will be taken to restrict the use of polythene shopping bags to safeguard future generations.
Starting from October 1, polythene bags will be banned in shopping malls, followed by a ban in kitchen markets from November 1.
“Everyone must take responsibility and stop using polythene voluntarily. Action against polythene producers will begin from November 1,” Rizwana Hasan stated during a seminar.
The Department of Environment (DoE) organized the seminar to raise public awareness about alternatives to banned polythene bags.
Rizwana Hasan highlighted that the restriction on polythene will be executed in phases according to legal provisions, and discussions with shopping centers and store owners are ongoing to ensure a smooth transition.
She also announced plans to make the government secretariat a plastic-free zone by December.
Other speakers at the seminar included Environment Secretary Dr. Farhina Ahmed, DoE Director General Dr. Abdul Hamid, Director Rajinara Begum, President of the Shop Owners Association Muhammad Helal Uddin, and Md. Arifur Rahman Bhuiyan, Assistant Professor of Environmental Science at BUP. They discussed the harmful effects of polythene and the need for alternative products.
Earlier, Rizwana Hasan inaugurated a fair showcasing eco-friendly alternatives to polythene bags and visited 24 stalls. The fair featured products from government and private entrepreneurs, including reusable bags, jute bags, paper bags, and items made from bamboo and cane.
