Opinion
Bull Run in the Stock Market: A Sign of Better Days Ahead
The bull in the stock market charged forward last week, surging by 590.87 points, marking a significant milestone. The DSEX index graph shot up sharply, with the DS30 and Shariah indices also rising by 231.88 and 109.53 points, respectively.
This leap in the indices appears to salute the “August Revolution” and extend a warm welcome to the interim government led by Dr. Yunus. Such trends are typical across global stock markets during transitions.
Last week, the BSEC’s “mirror room” was free of external influences, allowing trading activities to proceed without interference. This contributed to a smooth and natural progression of the stock market. Over three days of trading, the DSEX index climbed to 5924.81 points—an increase that, while significant, remains within normal parameters. By the end of the week, the market P/E ratio stood at 11.42, making it an attractive option for buyers.
A detailed analysis of last week’s trading on the DSE reveals that the rise in indices was largely driven by strong fundamental stocks, particularly in the banking sector and multinational companies. These sectors, along with several other companies, currently have low P/E ratios. If these shares reach their fair value, the DSEX index could surpass the 10,000-point mark.
The stock market management must remain market-friendly and deepen the market to introduce “hedging” instruments. With hedging in place, the P/E ratio could reach any height.
The bull run last week was predominantly fueled by fundamentally sound shares, as evident from the DSE trading data. The top ten traded stocks included BATBC, Square Pharma, City Bank, Unilever, BRAC Bank, Techno Drugs, Uttara Bank, Sea Pearl, Trust Bank, and Robi. Except for one, all these shares have a substantial impact on the index.
These shares had limited trading activity for a long time, and their market values hadn’t seen significant growth. If these stocks reach their logical valuations, the index’s height could reasonably double. However, under the current market management system, the index is controlled. This system, along with the media, creates obstacles to the index reaching its desired heights. When share prices and indices rise, the media often sensationalizes and distorts the situation, leading to negative headlines. Misguided expert opinions in the news further confuse investors.
Presently, there are no external people in BSEC’s “mirror room.” However, if outsiders with little market knowledge occupy this space, they will likely tighten control over the index. To strengthen the stock market, it is better if such individuals do not involve themselves directly. They can gather the necessary information from BSEC, DSE, and CDBL without physically intervening.
Last week, the BSEC chairman and three commissioners were absent from the office. Two showed up, but there was no interference in the market. Meanwhile, the head of the DSE board, a professor from the science faculty of Dhaka University, continues in his role. He is not expected to have deep knowledge of economics or the stock market. Moreover, DU professors have proven to be dangerous for both the financial and stock markets, as evidenced by their involvement in both.
The top positions in the DSE administration are occupied by unqualified individuals who have held their posts for years. Over the past 15 years, the DSE board and administration have thoroughly “Awami-ized” the DSE, leading to its current decline to the “B” category.
Together, BSEC and DSE have paved the way for manipulation and looting in the stock market, and the margin system remains in place, much to the detriment of investors. Despite promises to update the margin rules, the current system continues to drain investors’ capital. As a result, many investors, now impoverished, have been forced to leave the market. Approximately 1.3 million investors have had to exit the market after losing their capital.
Under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, the Awami League government has followed a scorched-earth policy for the past 15 years, destabilizing the structure of every state institution. The economy has plunged into a deep crisis, banks are hollowed out, and liquidity shortages in the financial and stock markets have worsened.
There is no governance in state institutions, nor is there any good news. The weaknesses and failures in management have led to the collapse of economic, social, political, cultural, and even family institutions.
All eyes are now on the interim government led by Dr. Muhammad Yunus. Salim Uddin Ahmed has been entrusted with the Ministry of Finance and Planning. Both are skilled managers, and there is hope for better outcomes in the future.
Fazlul Bari
Writer
Bangladesh’s political landscape is currently experiencing turmoil, especially among the youth and intellectuals. The widespread aspiration to “develop Bangladesh” is at a critical juncture as concerns about the country’s future grow due to the ongoing quota movement.
On June 5, quota protests aimed to challenge the employment reservation system that allocated 56% of public jobs to specific groups, prioritizing lineage over talent.
The violent clashes on July 18 left at least 200 dead and thousands injured. The government’s response included a heavy police presence, curfews, and internet shutdowns.
Although the Supreme Court reduced the quota to 7% on July 21, protesters are now demanding the release of those detained and the resignation of officials responsible for the crackdown.
These unrests have severely disrupted the economy, causing supply chain disruptions, soaring inflation, and business losses of over Tk 1,000 crore due to internet shutdowns. These conditions have forced many educated youth to seek opportunities abroad, exacerbating the brain drain phenomenon.
According to a 2021 report, about 45,000 Bangladeshi students went abroad for higher education, with a brain drain index of 7.6, higher than the global average of 5.55.
Fahim Mashroor, CEO of Bdjobs.com, expressed his change of heart on LinkedIn, calling out parents who are now sending their children abroad due to the country’s inability to protect their future while earlier arguing about Bangladesh’s huge potential. Mir Shahrukh Islam, CEO of Bondstein, highlighted the long-term impact on the ICT sector, predicting a 10-15% job loss due to power outages. This has forced companies to outsource work, further straining the economy.
In 2024, the unemployment rate in Bangladesh was around 3. 51% in the first quarter.
It is expected to increase due to the heavy financial losses suffered by the technology and call center industries due to internet shutdowns. The government must urgently address these issues, engaging with citizens to foster an environment that rewards talent, respects justice, and creates opportunities for growth.
In doing so, Bangladesh can work to retain its brightest minds and build a prosperous future. The challenge is not only to create a country where young people are motivated to stay and contribute to the country’s development but to achieve this through collective effort and commitment to positive change.
This critical moment calls for decisive action to ensure that future generations can live with dignity, security, and fulfillment.
Tazeen Nuwari Anwar
LLB, LLM and Barrister of England and Wales
Taught law for six years at the British School of Law, before joining Bangladesh’s largest startup, ShopUp
The enduring cultural exchanges between China and Bangladesh, spanning over two millennia, highlight the importance of such interactions in fostering lasting international friendships. The “Belt and Road” initiative and the “Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor” have further solidified this bond. However, it’s vital to recognize that these exchanges transcend mere economics; cultural exchanges are equally, if not more, influential in driving economic interactions.
Cultural diplomacy hinges on the exchange of ideas, values, traditions, and cultural identities to strengthen relationships, enhance socio-cultural cooperation, and promote national interests. Unlike government-driven initiatives, cultural relations grow naturally through trade, tourism, student exchanges, communication, book circulation, migration, media, intermarriage, and countless daily cross-cultural encounters. Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of promoting a cultural spirit that transcends time, space, and national boundaries.
Bangladesh and China share a deeply rooted historical relationship, which has only strengthened since Bangladesh’s independence in 1971. Diplomatic relations officially began in 1975, and since then, persistent efforts from both nations have brought them closer. China has become Bangladesh’s most trusted friend, and both countries now enjoy a thriving economic partnership. They are committed to further enhancing economic ties, focusing on bilateral trade, investment, joint ventures, connectivity projects, and cultural exchanges. This commitment has been reflected in several joint statements over the years, including in 2005, 2010, 2014, and 2016.
The first high-level visit from China occurred in 1978 when Vice Premier Li Xiannian visited Bangladesh to strengthen bilateral relations. Subsequent visits by leaders and prime ministers from both countries have fostered a robust relationship. Numerous political and diplomatic visits, friendly exchanges between administrative agencies, parliamentary bodies, political leaders, cultural groups, businesses, and NGOs have further cemented these ties.
Both nations have signed various bilateral treaties and Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) in socio-economic and cultural fields, fostering social and cultural exchanges such as language programs, academic scholarships, cultural trips, sports events, and friendship visits. Additionally, people-to-people connections through business tours, tourism, and media affiliations, as well as religious and philosophical exchanges, have flourished and continue to thrive.
In April 2005, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Bangladesh, marking the establishment of a comprehensive cooperative partnership characterized by long-term friendship, equality, and mutual benefit. The year 2005 was declared the “Year of China-Bangladesh Friendship” to celebrate the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations.
Bangladesh holds a deep respect and appreciation for Chinese culture, valuing traditional elements like Confucianism, Chinese medicine, sports, cuisine, and classical literature. With China’s rapid modernization, there is also significant interest in its modern culture, including scientific and technological advancements and contemporary art. Bangladeshis hope to further strengthen cultural exchanges with China to enhance mutual understanding and promote common development.
Cultural exchanges play a crucial role in eliminating misunderstandings and fostering friendly bilateral relations. In response to China’s Global Civilization Initiative, these exchanges can significantly enhance mutual appreciation and cooperation between China and Bangladesh.
On March 15, 2023, General Secretary Xi Jinping unveiled the Global Civilization Initiative at the High-level Dialogue between the Communist Party of China and World Political Parties. This initiative emphasizes the importance of respecting the diversity of world civilizations, fostering shared values across humanity, prioritizing the inheritance and innovation of cultural legacies, and enhancing international cultural exchanges and cooperation. Following the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative, the Global Civilization Initiative represents another significant contribution from China to address global challenges in the new era.
Since its introduction, the Global Civilization Initiative has gained substantial traction. Its principles have been further refined, practical measures have deepened, and the enthusiasm for participation from various global parties has surged. The international community has responded positively, recognizing the initiative’s essential role in promoting the inclusive coexistence of different civilizations, facilitating exchanges and mutual learning, advancing the modernization of human society, and enriching the world’s cultural landscape.
Bangladesh-China Relations: A Historical Perspective
The relationship between Bangladesh and China has a rich history marked by significant diplomatic visits and agreements. In September 1996, Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina made her first foreign visit to China after assuming office. This visit laid the foundation for stronger bilateral ties. Subsequent visits in March 2010 and June 2014 saw both nations committing to a “closer comprehensive cooperation partnership.” During these visits, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Chinese leaders, including Premier Li Keqiang, explored avenues for enhanced cooperation.
In September 2015, a meeting between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in New York reinforced the notion that China and Bangladesh are good neighbors, friends, and partners. President Xi’s historic visit to Bangladesh in October 2016 further solidified this relationship, resulting in the signing of 27 cooperation agreements across various sectors. In July 2019, discussions in Beijing between the two leaders encompassed trade, investment, infrastructure, the digital economy, climate change, anti-terrorism, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC).
Strengthening Bilateral Ties Through Continued Engagement
In August 2022, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina met with Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Dhaka, followed by another significant meeting with President Xi Jinping in August 2023 on the sidelines of the 15th BRICS Summit in India. These discussions highlighted the importance of regional peace and stability, increased trade and investment, and loan issues, underscoring the depth and breadth of Bangladesh-China relations.
These ongoing efforts have paved the way for a promising future in Bangladesh-China relations, marked by enhanced assistance, trade, investment, cultural cooperation, and mutual benefits. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to China has opened a new chapter in cultural exchanges between the two nations. This visit symbolizes not only a deepening of political and economic cooperation but also the strengthening of people-to-people connections, which are crucial for fostering mutual understanding, trust, and friendship.
China and Bangladesh, both with rich historical and cultural heritages, stand to gain immensely from these exchanges. This visit offers an excellent opportunity for both countries to learn from each other, further cementing their ties and contributing to a more interconnected and harmonious global community.
In the realm of education, an upsurge in student exchange programs between China and Bangladesh is on the horizon. China’s prestigious higher education system is globally acclaimed, and Bangladeshi students are anticipated to receive more scholarships to study in China, immersing themselves in cutting-edge knowledge and technological advancements. Concurrently, Chinese students will have enhanced opportunities to explore Bangladesh’s distinctive education system and cultural heritage. Recent years have seen a notable strengthening of partnerships between universities in both countries, with a rising number of joint training initiatives invigorating the talent development landscape.
Cultural exchanges are set to flourish further, particularly in art, literature, and music. The unique artistic expressions of Bangladesh, including its traditional dance, music, and literary works, are poised to gain greater exposure in China, captivating Chinese audiences with their distinctive allure. Likewise, Chinese cultural traditions such as Peking Opera, calligraphy, and martial arts are expected to find a welcoming audience in Bangladesh, enriching the cultural fabric of the nation. Events like the previously held “China-Bangladesh Cultural Festival,” which saw enthusiastic participation from both countries, underscore the potential for cultural integration and mutual appreciation.
Tourism stands as another pivotal component of this burgeoning relationship. Bangladesh, with its stunning natural landscapes and rich historical sites, is set to attract more Chinese tourists, boosting local tourism. Conversely, China’s expansive territory and diverse tourist attractions are drawing interest from Bangladeshi travelers. By enhancing tourism promotion, simplifying visa processes, and other collaborative measures, both nations can facilitate greater people-to-people exchanges. Additionally, sports exchanges offer a valuable platform for fostering goodwill. Traditional and emerging sports activities, including friendly matches and sports training programs, can strengthen the bonds of friendship between the two populations.
The recent visit of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to China heralds a new chapter in cultural exchanges between the two nations. This visit is poised to forge enduring connections, nurture mutual respect, and foster a shared appreciation for cultural diversity. With concerted efforts from both sides, this burgeoning chapter promises to bring substantial benefits to the people of both countries and lay a robust foundation for the sustained development of bilateral relations.
Mohammad Saiyedul Islam
Doctoral Candidate in the School of International Trade and Economics at the Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics.
Senior Research Fellow at Daffodil International University Belt and Road Research Centre, Bangladesh
Immigration laws have long been a delicate balancing act, weighing national interests against the aspirations of individuals seeking better opportunities. This equilibrium has tipped erratically in recent years, particularly in Western and European nations, transforming hopeful journeys into arduous trials. For many, like Sadman Mushfiq from Bangladesh, these shifting policies have turned a path to opportunity into a maze of frustration and uncertainty.
Since 2020, many countries have tightened their immigration policies, complicating relocation for skilled workers and students. Canada, once a beacon for immigrants with its Express Entry system, has seen its CRS score cut-offs fluctuate wildly, leaving many potential migrants in limbo. This unpredictability makes planning akin to aiming at a moving target.
In the United States, a series of executive orders and policy shifts have heightened insecurity for prospective immigrants. Visa suspensions, increased vetting, and stricter H-1B visa requirements have added to the anxiety. Germany’s Skilled Workers Immigration Act initially offered hope, but its implementation has been bogged down by bureaucratic hurdles and lengthy processing times, discouraging many. Similarly, Australia and New Zealand have raised the bar with their points-based systems, making it harder for candidates to qualify.
Sadman, a qualified professional, finds himself entangled in these evolving policies. Despite his efforts to learn new languages and pursue higher education, shifting goalposts have left him in a state of uncertainty. His story is echoed by Lima Khan, who dreams of migrating to Canada to support her family. “Since my father’s passing, I’ve become the breadwinner. The labor market in Bangladesh is unfavorable, and I wish to work abroad to provide a better income. Despite completing a master’s degree, I feel hopeless as the requirements keep changing,” she laments.
The irony is palpable: these countries initially welcomed young, skilled migrants to counter aging populations and boost their economies. The influx of talent was beneficial for host countries and a beacon of hope for many. However, abrupt policy shifts have led to questions about the fairness and logic behind these changes, potentially depriving nations of valuable contributions from eager migrants.
This situation raises a critical question: Should countries have the authority to alter immigration inflows at will? While it is understandable that nations must periodically revise policies to meet economic and other needs, the human cost of such changes cannot be ignored. Promises made to prospective immigrants, who invest time, money, and effort to meet requirements, should not be casually broken.
In conclusion, while immigration policies must adapt to changing circumstances, they should also remain consistent and transparent to ensure fairness. The dreams and aspirations of millions should not be held hostage to unpredictable policy shifts. As we navigate the complex terrain of immigration laws, a balance must be struck between national interests and the genuine hopes of people like Sadman Mushfiq and Lima Khan, who seek nothing more than a fair chance at a better life.
Tazeen Nuwari Anwar
LLB, LLM and Barrister of England and Wales
