World Biz
Interest rate likely to hike again in US
The Federal Reserve has seen delivering another huge interest-rate hike in 3 weeks’ time and ultimately increasing rates to 4.75pc-5pc by prior next year, if not further after a government report showed inflation remained stubbornly hot last month.
Traders of U.S. interest-rate futures piled into fresh bets on a more aggressive Fed, even pricing in a one-in-three chance that the Fed drives the policy rate above 5% next year, after a Labor Department report showed the consumer price index jumped 0.4pc in September from August. From a year prior, prices rose 8.2pc, far above the Fed’s 2pc target.
“Our policies have not really bitten as much as they need to for us to get to a better place,” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told the news media on Wednesday, 12 October, before the report.
The Fed has raised interest rates faster this year than any time since the early 1980s when inflation was even higher and so entrenched in day-to-day American life that it took pushing short-term borrowing costs — and the unemployment rate — into double digits before price pressures finally receded.
Policymakers hope to avoid anything like that this time around. But analysts say chances of skirting a rate-hike-induced recession are fading fast, particularly because of price pressures in categories such as shelter that tend be sticky, and ongoing labor market tightness that is feeding wage pressures.
Shortages in labor and in housing, wrote Jefferies’ economist Aneta Markowska, to put a “floor” for underlying inflation at around 4pc, “and we think breaking that floor will require substantial labor market weakness, which makes a recession unavoidable.”
Before the report, traders had all but priced in a fourth straight 75-basis-point hike at the close of the Fed’s Nov. 1-2 meeting. That is still the dominant view, though futures prices now also reflect about a one-in-10 chance of a full percentage-point rate hike next month. The Fed’s policy rate is currently 3pc-3.25pc.
By year-end, traders now expect the rate to reach 4.5pc-4.75p — the level Fed policymakers had just three weeks ago seen taking until next year to reach — and topping out around 4.85pc by March of next year.
Futures prices also reflect about a 35pc chance of rates rising above 5pc, validating the long-held view of some analysts who have argued the Fed will at least that puncture price pressures, and that unemployment, now 3.5pc, will likely shoot up as well.
“Broadly speaking, we see this as supporting our call for a terminal rate of 5pc to 5.25pc,” wrote LH Meyer economists, higher than Fed policymakers had themselves signaled just 3 weeks ago, “higher than markets have been pricing, and higher than markets are pricing even after this report.”
Fed policymakers have raised interest rates sharply this year, from near-zero just seven months ago. Most global central banks are also raising rates fast, and stock prices around the world have fallen as investors and economists expect growth to slow in response.
Despite those concerns, most policymakers are so far more worried about raising rates too little than doing too much and are intent on pushing rates higher until they see progress on inflation, which is eroding Americans’ purchasing power at a faster pace than at any time in 40 years.
The result, analysts fear, will be a Fed that goes too far, forcing it to reverse course late next year to offset what by then could be a full-blown recession.
“With the (Fed’s) backward-looking reaction function intensifying overtightening risks, we now expect the Fed to cut the funds rate by 75 (basis points) in the final three meetings of 2023,” Barclays economists wrote on Thursday.
Traders are pricing a smaller 30 basis point rate cut toward the end of 2023, rate-futures contracts traded at CME Group show.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina today (25 April) called for speaking out against all forms of aggression and atrocities, and say ‘no’ to wars.
“We must speak out against all forms of aggression and atrocities, and say ‘no’ to wars,” she said adding that Bangladesh supports the UN Secretary General’s ‘New Agenda for Peace.
The prime minister was addressing the 80th Session of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) held at the ESCAP Hall (2nd floor), United Nations Conference Center (UNCC) here.
She arrived in Bangkok on Wednesday on a six-day official visit to Thailand.
The PM said the pre-condition for sustainable development is lasting peace and security.
“We must settle regional disputes and tension through dialogue. Our mutual respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity must remain paramount,” she said.
Hasina called upon the Asia-Pacific region, especially ASEAN, to redouble their efforts to end Rohingya crisis as all efforts at regional connectivity, integration, and prosperity will continue to be marked by a missing puzzle without it.
“The origin of their crisis has been in Myanmar, and its solution also lies in Myanmar,” she declared.
“As long as that solution remains out of reach, all our efforts at regional connectivity, integration, and prosperity will continue to be marked by a missing puzzle. Let us redouble our efforts to put that puzzle back in place,” she said.
She said that in August 2017, when thousands of Rohingya men, women, and children from Myanmar fled to Bangladesh, Bangladesh offered them temporary shelter.
“With an ever growing population, this has now become one of the largest humanitarian situations in the world,” she said.
Sheikh Hasina said that In the backdrop of ongoing armed conflicts in Myanmar, the Rohingya repatriation process is also getting delayed.
“This is creating serious security risks within and beyond our territories,” she said.
She called upon the Asia-Pacific region, especially ASEAN, to play a proactive role in resolving the volatile situation in Myanmar.
“We must ensure that the Rohingya can go back home in safety and dignity at the earliest possible,” she said.
The prime minister said that the Asia-Pacific region must stand united against its common enemies of poverty and hunger.
She said Bangladesh has reduced poverty from 41.51 percent to 18.7 percent between 2006 and 2022.
It also reduced extreme poverty from 25.1 to 5.6 percent during the same period.
“We remain confident about eradicating extreme poverty by 2030,” she said.
She mentioned that Bangladesh has made notable progress on food security, with focused interventions on maternal and child nutrition.
“Our current priority is to address inequalities through income distribution, asset ownership, and social protection,” she said.
The prime minister said that Asia-Pacific region must put up a united front in tackling the climate crisis, biodiversity loss, and transboundary pollution.
“We need to push for ambitious climate financing goals beyond 2025 at COP-29. We need to cooperate on cross-border water management and air quality improvement. We must all prepare for growing extreme weather events,” she said.
In this connection, she suggested looking into Bangladesh’s experience in disaster risk reduction.
“We appreciate UN-ESCAP’s support in improving our early warning capabilities,” she added.
Briefly describing various development programmes and achievements of her govebrment, the prime minister said that much of the development gains are affected by climate impacts.
“As a low-lying delta, Bangladesh has no option but to invest heavily in climate resilience,” she said.
She mentioned that Bangladesh is already recognised as a global leader in climate adaptation.
“We are happy to share our traditional and innovative solutions with other vulnerable countries,” she said.
She said that Bangladesh has urged developed and emerging economies in the region to raise their time-bound emission reduction targets.
“For economies in transition, it is important to have a just energy transition.”
In Bangladesh, she said, “we are working on long-term energy security with a sound mix of clean and renewable energy.”
“We shall continue to do our part in pursuing a circular and low-carbon economic growth pathway.”
She underscored the need for increased and easy access to financing and technology from both the public and private sectors.
“I invite UN-ESCAP to help build the capacity of climate-vulnerable countries to mobilise adequate international climate financing.”
PM Hasina said that Bangladesh now provides critical links to the Trans-Asian Highway and Railway networks.
“Our physical and digital infrastructures are being developed to foster regional trade and connectivity.”
She said Bangladesh offers access to the Bay of Bengal for land-locked territories in its neighbourhood.
“We stand ready to work together with all regional partners through mutual understanding and cooperation,” said the prime minister.
The ongoing internet disruption, which began last night due to a cut in the country’s second submarine cable near Singapore, is expected to persist for at least 4-5 days, according to Mirza Kamal Ahmed, managing director (additional charge) of the Bangladesh Submarine Cables PLC.
Ahmed, the official of the state-owned bandwidth provider, informed The Business Standard that the international consortium is in search of a special purpose ship necessary for restoring the undersea cable.
“The exact duration cannot be specified,” he stated, adding, “Based on past instances, it is likely to take a minimum of 4-5 days.”
Internet users are experiencing significant disruption as the accidental cut in Bangladesh’s second submarine cable, South East Asia–Middle East–Western Europe 5 (SEA-ME-WE 5), is blocking Singapore-Kuakata traffic, the source of 1700 GBPS bandwidth.
“We are serving all our users with the help of other sources of bandwidth – the international terrestrial cable (ITC) and the first submarine cable,” informed Nazmul Karim Bhuiyan, secretary general of the ISP Association of Bangladesh.
However, he mentioned that users are encountering some lag on Saturday afternoon.
“As the main broadband usage peaks during the night, we could learn about the full extent of the disruption and any resulting delays tonight,” he added.
The Bangladesh Submarine Cables PLC (BSCPLC) has issued sincere apologies for the temporary inconvenience to its customers.
Efforts are underway to repair the cable through the SEA-ME-WE 5 and restore connectivity promptly, stated the BSCPLC in a statement released today (April 19).
Currently, Bangladesh requires around 5,200 GBPS of internet bandwidth, with half of the demand being met by ITC companies importing bandwidth from India.
For the remaining half of the demand, the country relies on the state-owned Bangladesh Submarine Cable Company.
The first submarine cable SEA-ME-WE 4, located in Cox’s Bazar, is presently supplying approximately 850 GBPS bandwidth.
Economy
Diplomats, Journalists from Russia and Africa Forge Alliance to Develop Information Strategy
Russia and Africa have joined forces to craft a comprehensive information strategy, as revealed during the Second International Journalists Forum held on Thursday, April 18, both online and offline.
Organized by the Russian-African Club in collaboration with the Faculty of Journalism and the Faculty of Global Studies of Lomonosov Moscow State University, and backed by the Secretariat of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the forum drew a diverse array of participants. Diplomats, government officials from African nations, media executives, producers, TV hosts, journalists, public figures, scholars, educators, and representatives from cultural and media sectors converged, totaling around 100 individuals from 32 countries spanning Russia, Africa, the Middle East, India, Bangladesh, and Brazil.
The forum, moderated by Alexander Berdnikov, Executive Secretary of the Russian-African Club, featured notable figures such as Anna Gladkova, Louis Gouend, and Ilya Shershnev from Lomonosov Moscow State University. Oleg Ozerov, Ambassador at Large of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, and Head of the Secretariat of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum, conveyed a welcoming address stressing the pivotal role of truthful media in shaping perceptions of current events. He also highlighted the significance of the upcoming Russia-Africa Ministerial Conference scheduled for November in Sochi, emphasizing the need for a robust information framework to facilitate productive discussions.
Elena Vartanova, Dean of the Journalism Faculty of Lomonosov MSU, extended greetings and underscored the intensified efforts of the Russian-African Club ahead of the university’s 270th anniversary. Yves Ekoué Amaiso from Togo emphasized the imperative of devising a unified media strategy amidst the ongoing political, economic, and information dynamics influenced by the Global West.
Subsequent speakers, including Zenebe Kinfu, Leonard Dossou, Ondua Ovona Joseph Julien, and Tokologu Tau, deliberated on the growing Western influence on African media and proposed concrete measures to bolster collaboration between Russian and African journalists.
Jamal Othman, Head of the Main Department for Media Content Monitoring in Libya, shed light on his organization’s role in combating misinformation and promoting tolerance.
Ilya Shershnev reiterated the significance of advancing preventive journalism, announcing plans for an innovative training course encompassing areas such as public diplomacy, fake news mitigation, and peacebuilding, underscoring Moscow State University’s commitment to fostering a new frontier in the information domain.
Renowned Indian expert, professor, and journalist Dwivedi Ratnesh highlighted Russia as a blueprint for India in terms of governmental support for national media activities, balancing control with respect for journalists’ independent and constructive opinions.
Maxim Reva, Deputy Editor-in-Chief for Economics at the African Initiative news agency, showcased the agency’s three correspondent points established directly in Africa – in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. He underscored the paramount importance of personal communication between media professionals and the audience. Reva also pointed out the significant potential of African graduates from Soviet and Russian universities who have emerged as leading specialists in African countries.
Joining the session online from Cameroon, Club expert, International Journalist, and Academician of Petrovsky Academy of Sciences and Arts, Sergei Chesnokov, participating in the fourth investment forum, highlighted the keen interest of Cameroonians in the Russian delegation, expressing a desire for an equal partnership.
Patrick Boyanga Bozi, President of the Congolese Diaspora in Russia, expressed confidence in Africans’ immunity to correctly perceive information, stemming from the historically friendly relations between Russia and Africa.
Entrepreneur Georges Romain Zobo from Congo, a graduate of a Soviet university, stressed the necessity for practical measures to provide information support to small and medium-sized agricultural businesses in Africa.
Said Ali, President of the Malagasy diaspora in Russia, endorsed the Russian-African Club of Lomonosov Moscow State University’s activities, deeming it a pivotal organization for advancing the Russian agenda in Africa.
Africanist and writer Igor Sid highlighted Africa’s perennial role as a source of new perspectives, generously shared with the global community.
Concluding the proceedings, Alexander Berdnikov, Executive Secretary of the Russian-African Club of Lomonosov Moscow State University, affirmed that all proposals from the forum participants would be considered by the Journalists Association of Russia and African Countries. The forum’s main thrust emphasized the necessity of crafting an information strategy to bolster Russian-African relations.
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